Lorne Steinberg Starbucks SBUX-Q PAST TOP PICK Mar 06, 2025

The shares are overprices and (some say) the coffee is mediocre. In the last 10 years, the competition has really increased. Too rich.

Buy on this pullback. This was down 13% in 2022, and 2% in 2023 and another 2% this year. It's rare for SBUX to be down three straight years. We'll know when they report Jan. 28 if the turnaround is working. They will do $1 billion in revenue, -1% YOY, $1.12 billion in EBIT or -23% YOY. Analyst expectations are very low. Shares are trading at their 10-year median valuation. They just hired the best QSR CEO who will turn things around. At $80-65, he will add a lot more shares.

Wild ride, ups and downs. 200-day MA is still declining to flattening, not the most positive sign. Sluggish China impacted performance, uncertainty still there. Trying to enhance efficiencies and revenues. Positive earnings growth won't be until next year. 30x forward PE.

It reports Tuesday. Maybe buy it after the conference call. The new CEO did a great job to turn around Chipotle.

Up 18% last month after a beat. He has faith in the new CEO.

Biggest change is new CEO. Above 200-day MA since last August, now near 52-week high. Slow pandemic recovery in China. Premium of 36x forward PE, with 9% growth -- well over 3.5x PEG. Bit overbought at 80 RSI, take some profit.

They changed the CEO last summer, one of the best in fast food (did a great job at Chipotle). The CEO is improving through-put, will restore the coffee house vibe, and wants to add 10,000 locations in the US alone. You're betting on the CEO.

Still a core holding. Turnaround well underway with new CEO. Looking for earnings to stabilize this year, and go up 30-40% in 2026.

They report Tuesday. Expects the CEO to announce a domestic and international plan. Shares are stalled under the current CEO. He doesn't expect a breakout quarter, but will hang onto it.