Stockchase Opinions

Michael Underhill Rayonier Inc. RYN-N COMMENT Jul 02, 2014

This is more into specialty fibres. Has lowered his target price from $52 to $37 because of a tax-free spin out of a division. Had a decent run over the last 3-4 years. Because of its REIT structure, it can be volatile.

$34.970

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc industrial products
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TOP PICK
Owns timberland, so they suffered a little bit because of a slowdown in the real estate development, but then they just let the trees grow. If lumber prices ever come back, they can make money on that side. Also makes specialty fibres. Yielding about 5%.
HOLD
Haven’t really taken the sub-prime blow up on the chin. Unlike most forest related companies. Non-correlation to the stock/bond market. If lumber prices are high they’ll cut more trees, if low they’ll let them grow.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 16/07. Up 18%.) Timberland REIT. If you can’t get prices for real estate or timber, you just let the trees grow. 5% dividend.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 17’08. Up 16%) Dividend is safe. Inflation hedge. High performance fibers that going to diapers has continued to rise. Earnings fairly flat, but margins up.
COMMENT

Have 3 businesses, timber land, real estate and performance pulp. Competitors have dumped pulp on to the market to compete with the specialty fibres that they make. These fibres go into cigarette filters and diapers. Drop in the stock price was really a reflection that this dumping probably will persist for the next 3 years or so. They still have their timberland REIT, which is buying land in New Zealand. Product is shipped directly to China. He is going to Hold because they have been able to execute very well with what they are doing. Timberland situation is not correlated to stocks or bonds and he doesn’t mind bad news in the short term, which will ultimately be better news down the road. 4.3% dividend yield.

TOP PICK

Lumber and forest products company. Large company had a nice consolidation for 10 months. He is seeing a momentum breakout now. It is just starting to break out so he sees potential and is planning a buying program for this. If the stock drops, he will begin reducing at $33 and be out at $31. At the upside, he thinks the stock can go to $40. (Analysts’ price target is 32.00$)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Past Top Pick on March 13, 2018, Up 2%) Wish he had bought it. It's definitely rising against the grain of the market. He'll buy it this week.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 13/18 Down 3%) It came within $0.30 of his $40 target. A 50 day moving average appears as a great trailing stop. Today he would hold, but wants to see it support a $34 stop.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 13/18, Down 15%) Doesn't look bad now. Sell below $28. It could hit $31 and has been enjoying an uptrend. He likes this sector.