Stockchase Opinions

Eric NuttallPipestone Energy Corp.PIPE.TOBUYJan 28, 2022

Believes company is under valued with strong free cash flow yield. Stock very tightly held, so hard to buy meaningful amounts.
$0.71

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$1.88

As of Oct 04, 2023. Market Open.

Energy
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DON'T BUY

Better names in market.
Will face issue of paper sellers with recent sale.
Shares not cheap enough.

DON'T BUY

Motley name, he wouldn't own. Tightly held by private equity. Disappointing wells. Cheap valuation. Only hope for stock to go up is for company to be bought. He can buy something with better quality, longer inventory, but equal valuation.

DON'T BUY

Suffering because of weak gas prices. Doesn't have the advantage of marketing power of the bigger names to get egress out of Canada. Doesn't offer the yield or balance sheet protection that he prefers. He goes for a yield around 6-7%, which also gives durability to the yield. Yield is 4.7%.

HOLD

Good company to invest in, but better names out there.
Has sold shares in company.
Recent attempt to sell company didn't have success.
Lots of gas in production (bearish on gas prices).

HOLD
Recent market selloff due to quality of acreage. Current share price presenting good buying opportunity (1x cash flow). Expecting stock buybacks next year. Low conviction on the name.
BUY
Owns 7% of company shares. Remains committed to company. Company has 19% free cash flow yield, and is trading at 2.5x free cash flow yield. Share price should appreciate 60% or 4-5x. Expecting company to be bought be someone.
BUY
Has recently bought ~$50 million worth of stock. Trading at ~1.7x cash flow & 32% free cash flow yield($100 oil). Could privatize in ~3 years. Very good company with enormous upside.
WATCH
A mini Nuvista. Doing infrastructure and delineation right now. Owns a small amount. The sellers have been non-commital and now there is an overhang. Trading at 27% free cashflow yield in 2023. Less liquidity than Nuvista.
BUY
A great small cap producer. Trading at a slight discount to competitors. Gives you good access to what will be consolidated. Could be an M&A target.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Balance sheet is in good shape with debt at 42%. They just started to ramp up their assets in the liquids-rich Montney. Likes the company. Under 45 cents/share, then buy. He likes the managers. Buy this during the recovery, because he expects significant upside 12 months from now.
TOP PICK
They ramped up production in Q4 last year. They could get to 30,000 bpd by end-2021 -- expecting them to exit 2020 around 18,000 bpd. He has a $1.50 one year price target. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $0.95)
WAIT
They are in the Montney region. They announced that a facility would be down for a few weeks and the share price has been hit temporarily. The stock is cheap, but he needs to see more data about new production first. Q1 results come out in May.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
He likes it and it is on his action alert buy list. They are going to be ramping up production over the next few months. Everyone is waiting for execution risk to come off. $4 one year target. Buy it on weakness.
HOLD
$277 Million market cap. Book value is over $2. They are waiting for two facilities to come on line. Their Q4 production should come up. It is a very cheap stock based on that. You have to take a very long term view on LNG in Canada. Then these will do well. He likes the management team and what they will do. They are doing all the right things operationally.