Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA NextEra Energy NEE-N TOP PICK Apr 22, 2024

It pays a big dividend, which makes him afraid, but offers no other reason to own it.

Both the stock and this sector can go higher.

After a good run, it's fallen over 70% since late 2021 highs. It plunged last year. When the Fed started raising interest rates, the market turned against all clean energy. Last fall, the company announced it was revising its long-term dividend target from 12% to 6% due to high rates. Also, starting in 2018 they issued CEPF financings, but this turned on them as their shares fell starting in 2021. They face $3.75 billion of CEPF buyout options coming due in 2025-2032, but where will they get the cash? They plan to sell pipeline assets, but are those enough? He suspects they will cut their dividend next year. If they cut in half, they could weather this storm, however, or they get sold to another company entirely.

Facilities can always be at risk in such events, and 3 million Florida residents lost power this week. But so far NEE has managed the situation well. Since it is a regular occurrence, we are of the view that the risk is likely at least partially priced into the valuation of the stock. In other words, buyers of the stock know it is an ongoing risk, yet are comfortable taking that risk. For what it's worth, the stock is up 57% in the past year. Lower interest rates and cash flow seem to be bigger drivers than weather events here. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

No particular quarrels with it, but moved on due to troubles they were having. Largest utility in the US, much of the Florida segment is regulated (low risk). Investors excited by the segment that's geographically more diversified with wind and solar; earnings in that segment more erratic. 

Decent grower. Plans to grow dividend 10% annually, supported by 8% EPS growth. Reasonably good balance sheet, BBB credit. 21x PE. Stock's already bounced, not calling to him. Yield is 3.7%.

Utilities sector has done really well, particularly in the US. Sector tends to be weak in January/February. Technicals show a pullback and breakdown, could see further weakness. In the right place fundamentally over the long term.

Direct exposure to energy providers as his AI play. Largest renewable power provider in the US. Stock's done well, a bit of volatility. Data centres will need power. Nuclear is an option, but it's down the road; this name helps bridge the gap till we get there.

Is -9% in the last 3 years. Trump says he likes solar energy, though not wind. So, he's not too worried about NEE, which is a cheap stock.

Flat, and flat is good in this market. This offer safety, being a utility in Florida where there's demand from people moving their for the tax rates. They also have a wind and solar with plans to add nuclear. There are rumblings that data centre demand for energy will weaken, but AI won't go away and will need power.

Fastest-growing utility in the US. Interest rates went higher last summer, which made things more difficult for utilities. Caught up in change of sentiment toward clean energy. He stepped away.