Stockchase Opinions

Rick Rule Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd NDM-T COMMENT Nov 09, 2017

A great deposit. He is nervous about the ongoing political and social dispute in Alaska. The permitting process will be long and potentially toxic. He really wants to see what unfolds.

$2.740

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

Has a massive project in Alaska which has been mired in controversy. It has had partners leave, big CapX spend, environmental sensitivities, etc. There was some rejuvenation when Trump was elected, because environment was a little bit less of an issue. He is at the point where he perceives mega projects are not desired anymore. Seniors have found a bit of religion in trying to focus on efficiencies, getting their house in order, and have been doing small acquisitions and trying to build future development projects on a more modular basis.

COMMENT

Has never owned this. The deposit was looked at by Rio Tinto and Anglo which spent a lot of money on it, but then both walked away. His investment thesis on any exploration or developing companies is for an eventual take out. When he sees 2 majors walking away from it, it makes him think twice. Also has problems with the economics as some of the high grades is much deeper.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 14/16. Up 13%.) One of those eternals that is desperately trying to become one of the world’s greatest copper/gold mines in Alaska. It has recently been affronted by criticisms from so-called EPA scientists who have not been given a chance to protest about certain permits being granted.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 14/16. Up 25%.) The world’s greatest mining prospector and Alaska is starved for jobs. The greenies have kind of receded, and there is a better mood with the EPA in the US. Thinks this gets going eventually. It is going to be gradual and you have to be patient.

WATCH

He's attracted to the deposit NDM has. He's been deeply critical about the company's relations with the local indigenous people, but is now heartened to see a turnaround. Deserves a look.

DON'T BUY
Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
DON'T BUY
It is supper big but not super rich. Other companies were in and pulled out. He has his doubts about it over the next 10 years or so. The problem is that most of the metal is at depth. There may be some debt issues.
RISKY
High-quality deposit. Substantial missteps in community relations. For speculative buyers, spectacular optionality to the upside from its cheap price. For him, there are too many unknowns, political and sociological, on the company's future.
SELL

Long-running saga. Barring a significant change in federal and state government, doesn't see it happening, as environmental sensitivity is too high. You could sit on the vine and wait, or move on to a currently viable project.