Stockchase Opinions

Martin Davies Madalena Ventures MVN-X COMMENT Jun 25, 2014

An Argentinean resource play with a small amount of Canadian Montney assets that seems to be doing fairly well. Lots of risks involved. They are doing things extraordinarily well. One of the more interesting oil analysts left the research business, and became president of this company. Plays his cards very, very well.

$0.500

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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TOP PICK

Very risky but nice bold formation. Pick up in volume with price. If it goes back to $0.25 level then drop it.

COMMENT

Usually this company’s targets are quite large, which interested a lot of people, but they didn’t hit those targets. What typically happens is that when they are about to drill, the stock moves up in anticipation of good results. Most of their landholdings are in political sensitive areas. Very much an exploration story. More of a lottery ticket. Difficult to analyze.

BUY

Acquired Online Explorations, which gave them some Canadian assets. Their genesis however was in Argentina. As the Argentinean government changed the rules the stock got clobbered. Their asset in Argentina is pretty good, but what is missing is capital to really chase it hard. Have developed an interesting play in Canada. Good management. He is seriously taking a look at this one.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Up 90.77%.) Doesn’t look like it is going to go much higher. Had a really strong rally that is just petering out.

TOP PICK

Acquired a Canadian asset base with the acquisition of Online, which is turning out to be a pretty good venture with 5 for 5 and there is a 6th well they are still puzzling over. The real sweet spot for this company is what is going on in Argentina. There are some very large companies drilling a play called Aqua Morta all around their 38,000 acres and paying huge prices for land. However, this company is having drilling success in its own right and he feels they are de-risking the play. They intend to develop this to a point and have one of the big companies take them out.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/14. Down 64.62%.) Thinks the fundamentals have got better. The big play here is their Argentinean asset base. What they have in Canada is good bread-and-butter assets. Argentina has a regulated oil price which was $80 a barrel, and was just readjusted to $77 a barrel. 90% of their cash flow comes from Argentina, and their budget is basically “drill the cash flow”. It is a very prolific shale oil play and Argentina needs the energy. There are big companies all around them and it is just a question of time until someone takes them out.

HOLD

Has owned this because of their Argentinian play. Thinks the bottom line for Argentina is that they need to have the elections in the fall happen. You just have to be patient with the story.

BUY

He likes what is happening in Argentina. It is a net importer of oil. They are getting an absolute premium price inside the country. He would not be surprised to see it become a takeout target. They have no debt. They have some shut in Canadian assets which could start producing if oil prices improve.

RISKY

A player in Argentinian shale. A really interesting company, and if you have a little bit of money where you want to play some significant torque, this is an interesting one. Argentina for her is a “no go zone” because of their historical issues of taking assets away. However, the country is improving politically.