Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Mainstreet Equity Corp
MEQ-T
BUY
Jul 05, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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In a sweet spot right now. Rents are going up quite a bit (12% YOY), as there's no rent control in many western Canadian provinces, yet vacancies are down substantially. Stellar results last quarter. Sold off with rest of REITs, yet it's not a REIT.
Typically trades at a premium to NAV, but today it's at a discount. Extremely well run, haven't raised a dollar of equity in 20 years. Compounded annually at 18% for 20 years. Yield is 1%.
(Analysts’ price target is $226.00)
Revenue was $67.6M slightly better than estimates. Rental revenue rose 16%. Cash flow per share rose 19% to $2.47, and ahead of estimates of $2.39. Net operating income rose 11%. We would consider it a solid quarter. Commentary was good, with the company talking about 'major opportunities' in the coming year. The dividend was raised last month. We would be comfortable at $200.
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Top of his list of regrets, perhaps the best-performing real estate stock in NA over the past 5 years. Incredible returns to shareholders and growth. Likes the business and management, though would favour a deeper management bench. Moral supporter of the company, but not an owner (kept thinking he'd get it cheaper, but never did).
Excellent company that is founder led (lots of skin in the game). Expecting shortage of affordable housing to be very good for business. Ability o acquire new properties, and fix them up is very good. Rising population without rent control is good for profit margins. Zero equity raises since original IPO is incredible track record.
Likes it here. Stock's gone quiet in terms of price, but operationally the company is doing extremely well. Last couple of quarters have been excellent. Founder-CEO still owns half the company, and he loves that structure. Strong growth in rents, very low vacancies. Now at a discount to NAV of ~$253. Sleep at night, steady eddy.
Key is that it retains most of cashflows to buy more buildings, rather then pay out in dividends the way most REITs do. Instituted a very small dividend only to appeal to those funds that have a dividend mandate.
MEQ has been a solid performer over the years, with a 21% five-year CAGR, and an 18% 10-year annualized return. It has a strong track record of earnings expansion and beating earnings estimates. It is fairly small ($1.8B market cap), and it is also fairly illiquid. It does have certain risks such as a high leverage profile, and it operates in a cyclical rental market, but it generates steady free cash flows, has tailwinds from demand for the urban rental market, and it has delivered strong growth with little to no share dilution. We think it has many qualities of a long-term compounder, but we would be mindful of its small size, high debt profile, and exposure to a cyclical market.
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MEQ operates as a real estate corporation focusing on managing residential rental apartments and is now trading at 27.6x times' Forward P/E, but only at 1.0x Book value. In the last five years, MEQ’s revenue growth has been quite consistent, around 12% on average. Like other real estate companies, the balance sheet is leveraged, with net debt of $1.5B. The net debt/EBITDA is currently around 14.5x. MEQ reinvested heavily into acquiring new properties. As a result, the company has had no dividend payments and limited shares repurchase over the last few years.
We think MEQ has the potential to be a compounder, trading at 1.0x Book value is also an attractive valuation, but the leverage levels need to be monitored carefully, as the debt is quite high. We would be comfortable with this name for a three-year+ timeframe given its cheap valuation and consistent revenue growth.
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