Opinions
Dennis da Silva
MEG Energy Corp
MEG-T
SELL
Oct 01, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
One of his largest holdings. It has sold off from tariff worries, just hitting a one-year low. They have 35 years of stay-flat inventory. Over 5 years, will grow production 25% while buying back half their shares as they pay a dividend. At $70, will trade at 4x cash flow and 13% free cash flow yield. At $80, they could buyback 80% of shares over 5 years. Is way oversold. Targets $30 in a year.
(Analysts’ price target is $31.25)Very defendable business in current oil price environment. Massive resource depth. US shale is in its twilight, which means they'll eventually have to come to Canada. Very healthy FCF yield. Buying back lots of stock.
At least 35 years of stay-flat inventory. Superbly high-quality asset. Good balance sheet. Sold off on tariff concerns. He has lots of confidence in medium- and long-term outlook. Full position in his fund.
We think the recent bid is a highly opportunistic bid, at a too-low price and with not enough cash as part of the renumeration (it is mostly stock). We cannot blame Strathcona for the attempt, and it has already bought 9.2% of the company, but there is a reason that MEG did not want to discuss this. At 9X earnings, and barely 5X cash flow, the stock is worth more than the current bid. MEG stock has reacted strongly today. We expect either a higher bid from Strathcona or a new bidder to enter the fray. We would HOLD.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
They received the second hostile bid in 10 years from the same company. He opposes this deal. The bid is laughable, massively undervalued. Unique, MEG has a super-quality single Oil Sands asset. Modest growth over time. They use all free cash flow to buy back stock. At $70 oil, MEG could buy back half their stock in the next 5 years. The asset quality of Strathcona (the bidder) isn't as good as MEG's. So, the deal would mean less liquidity, less quality, less inventory, though management of both are fine. MEG has a strong balance sheet and high inventory, so what is he getting from this deal? The fair value of MEG stock is much higher than now. He is a major shareholder of MEG.
He's not an M&A guy. If you want a really good answer, ask somebody else ;) A board will often reject something like this because they think it should be higher. And maybe a competitor will come along with a better offer.
Right now, if you believe that because of what's going on in the Middle East we might have persistently high oil prices for some period of time, then a lot of these energy drillers will benefit.
In the energy business, scale will be essential going forward.
The SCR offer has been improved by 10%, and this is not a big surprise. Now, we will need to see what the company says and whether CVE responds. Certainly it is 'better' than before but still might not be enough. We do not think this fight is over yet and we would hold shares for now.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
We would for now, just HOLD. We may still see another bump from SCR on this deal.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Heavy oil producer. Strathcona put in a hostile bid -- liquidity is an issue, assets are not as high quality as either MEG or CVE. Board has recommended the CVE offer, even though on paper it's a lower bid. CVE offer would provide better synergies.
He sold MEG on limited upside, and happy to keep holding CVE.