Opinions
Bryn Talkington
iShares Bitcoin ETF
IBIT-Q
BUY
Mar 01, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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He's a crypto skeptic. Might be a Ponzi scheme, biggest one we've ever seen. A lot of people tell him that he just doesn't understand the new world and that he's missed the boat. Maybe. He's been saying this for a long time, yet it keeps going up.
Volatile asset, will remain so. Might go to $1M before it goes to $0, doesn't know. Recognize what you're trading and the trading momentum of the greater fool theory. Limited supply and growing demand, so the price is going up. No one can tell you what it's worth. No cashflow, makes no money for you, not a productive asset. A speculative asset. If you think there are going to be more buyers than sellers, and it breaks $100k, enjoy it while it lasts.
He trimmed 20%. Bitcoin's momentum reversed after peaking at $105,000 at Trump's election, but is now going down. Expectations have changed from a golden age in the markets and business when Trump was elected, but none of those expectations has proven true. For example, we keep saying that 25% tariffs are a negotiating tool, but will we come out of it with 10%? We used to look at Putin as a dictator and now it's Ukraine's Zelensky. The point is, there's great instability. Sure, government agencies are bloated, but CEOs would feel better if there was a communicated strategy about why and how Trump will make these cuts. All this adds up to instability--and CEOs don't like instability, so they don't want to make investments. Overall, he's not a seller, but a trimmer, but he's not investing not capital either. Regulations won't change; Vance has doubled-down by saying big-cap tech is too big.
Miners will be paid half which is intended to slow production; there's way too much demand because of these new crypto ETFs. She wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin reach $100,000 or $25,000. She expects continued strong inflows.