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Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners GXO Logistics GXO-N BUY Mar 17, 2023

FedEx just reported a strong quarter

FedEx still missed revenues. The best thing that happened to UPS was FedEx kicking Amazon out, because they no longer playinng against one another one in terms of pricing. GXO is completely different from FedEx. GXO is a cost-plus or take-or-pay business with inflation escalators. GXO has 6% of the 3rd-party logistics business globally and are the largest independent amid more outsourcing. GXO will be fine and will trade with market, outperforming UPS or FedEx.

Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners

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COMMENT

GXO blew out top and bottom line numbers yesterday, growing like a weed and their raised their forecast. Shares went up yesterday and yet are down 5% today. Earnings don't matter--we're in a bear market.

BUY

They reported this week: 16% organic revenue growth and sells at less than 6x EBITDA next year. It's been beaten up, so the price is good now.

BUY

They're saving Nike 100 basis points on their business. A fine performer and stock with growth ahead.

BUY

It got beaten down too much. They benefit from e-commerce and the outsourcing trend.

BUY

They enjoy locked-in contracts with inflation kickers with a blue chip clientele. The e-commerce market is only 6% outsourced, so there's huge upside.

WEAK BUY

Continues to like it, though logistics is not his favourite sector. GXO enjoys ongoing outsourcing trends (i.e. Amazon, Nike, Intel) from companies who pay for their services. He's very long GXO, but it's tenuous.

BUY

Hasn't do well recently, but they report good quarters. Their outsourcing should do well.

HOLD

A valuable company but it's had a monster move lately.

SELL

After holding it a long time, he sold it. They had a weak quarter with slowing growth a lot. The CEO is retiring. GXO is an acquisition candidate, but isn't sure if growth will resume.

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Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners GXO Logistics GXO-N BUY Mar 17, 2023

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