Stockchase Opinions

Robert McWhirter Knight Therapeutics GUD-T COMMENT Feb 21, 2017

Basically a company that acquires pharmaceutical products, typically from other large established companies. Ranks in the top 3rd of his database. Earnings have been a bit challenged for the coming quarter. Most recently, sales were up 26% and earnings were up 54%. In the coming quarter,it is expected to have a step back, and earnings are expected to be $.03 versus $.08 last year. Earnings estimates have been shaved by 15%, and earnings for 2017 versus 2016 are literally unchanged at $.13 per share. Against a $10 stock price, that gives you and 82X PE multiple with low to no growth. There is a lot of competition and better opportunities in others.

$10.820

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. I Good Q2 results but weaker bottom line. Growth potential remains. No dividend to keep investors patient. Valuation arguably more attractive today.
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trades at a cheap valuation. Investors’ patience has run out. Recent acquisition gave it a new life. Current environment can be favorable. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

DON'T BUY

Years ago, they bought a major company that he owned a lot of shares in. He's waiting for another such purchase by GUD before considering it. He's looking for companies with growth and earnings.

DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The stock is acting better, and is up 15% YTD. It has been a while since it saw $6. EPS was -4c vs expectations of (nil). Revenue was $86.6M, beating estimates of $83.1M. EBITDA of $13.58M missed estimates of this $14.47M. Guidance was largely maintained. Revenue rose 4.9%, with margins a bit higher than estimates. Net cash is about $90M. Still not much excitement here. Some recent partnerships look more interesting than the quarterly results. It is good to see the sales gain, but we would not yet call this a dramatic turn. 
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TOP PICK

A hidden gem. Low liquidity, but has good topline growth, strong margin expansion potential and the CEO has a great track record from Paladin Labs. It buys existing drug platforms, and can now leverage that platform to introduce new drug therapies. Huge net cash and keep buying back shares. 

(Analysts’ price target is $7.60)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Down 11%)

(Note the short timeframe.)
One of the cheapest small caps, accumulate on weakness. Pullback gives you the opportunity. Good job setting stage for margin improvement over time, not overnight. High net-cash position. Capital discipline, good insider ownership. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 3%)

Solid hold over the longer term, need patience. Accumulate on any pullback. Volatility of Latin American markets is not helping, so watch that. Understands how to monetize recent acquisition.

DON'T BUY

Numbers are OK, but not fantastic. Better names in the sector. Lot of respect for management. May not be able to recapture the glory days of buying rights to distribute older drugs.