Five Below IncFIVEDON'T BUYMay 30, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 11, 2026. Market Open.
The dollar stores have been lifting lately and FIVE is doing the best. It has 20% revenue growth this year. Also it is growing its store base at 9% but this is difficult to sustain. The new CEO is doing things differently. Also they are becoming popular in Korea. Trades at 35X earnings so is getting expensive. Margins are not back to where they were but if they get there he would exit.
Sentiment toward the company is fairly poor right now and toward the discretionary sector more widely. FIVE remains a strong company fundamentally with a long runway for growth via store openings but we might give them one more quarter for a bit more clarity/visibility before adding to the name.
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The momentum is highly negative, however, we like FIVE at an 18x to 20x forward earnings valuation range. At current levels of 22.5x forward earnings, FIVE is very close to this range and below historical levels. We are hesitant to add more here, but the stock could be bottoming and there is future value if FIVE can execute its plan.
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Its recent results announce revenue guidance growth of 1% and earnings per share by 8%. However the stock dropped 30% along with negative sentiment towards the retail sector. It has plans to grow its store base by 15% this year which amounts to 225 stores. Its products are fairly inexpensive. Buy 17 Hold 6 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $205.90)
It reports Wednesday. How much longer can they put a lid on prices, driven up by tariffs? That said, he expect a good quarter, because they got a lot of merchandise before tariffs. But he's worried about guidance--they may need to raise prices.