Noah Blackstein, B.A., CFA Ford Motor F-N DON'T BUY Apr 10, 2002

He avoids car companies, because it's a tough business. Their report last night proves it--they've having a tough time. He prefers car parts makers.

He did not like some metrics in their last report: the warranty number, and how much they're losing in EVs. He likes the CEO and wishes he will do well, but can't recommend Ford.

(Note the short timeframe.) 
Bought closer to $10 in his aggressive strategy. Likely to sell very soon, as it's nearing the top of its range. Don't be a new buyer right now.

We should be concerned about possible tariffs. Though trading at a cheap 10x, he wouldn't buy.

Problem is that Ford has big warranty issues--it costs so much to fix a car. Is -9% this year so far. The auto stocks need a rate cut. 

It reports Wednesday. It has disappointed due to warranty costs. With long-term interest costs high and likely rising, their sales could be stalling. The stock has been awful.

F has seen negative momentum over the past few years, falling from a high of $25 in early 2022 to $9 today. It pays a good yield of 8.4%, but this is mostly high due to its falling stock price. Sales are expected to be mostly flat over the next few years, and earnings are expected to fall in the near term, with some growth thereafter. The auto industry was at one time a rising and popular theme, but we have since likely reached peak auto, and the forward growth is not as attractive as it once was. It is cheap (6X forward earnings), but so far it has proven to be a value trap. We would look for opportunities elsewhere in the industrials segment.
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Ford and GM have some of the lowest PEs around (7.3x and 4.3x) vs. the 22x S&P average. Ford pays a 6.2% dividend yield, while GM has a huge buyback plan. Incredibly cheap--until the tariffs started. Remember: the car-makers were a huge reason why Trump used tariffs in his first term which lead to the USMCA trade deal. But now Trump wants to take away the qualities that made US cars competitive and affordable. Today, the car-makers got a one-month reprieve from Trump's tariffs and shares jumped. But if the car-makers wind up paying these tariffs, are we okay with the U.S. replacing cheap Mexican labour with expensive U.S. union labour? That's why these stocks are so cheap--their earnings are in grave danger. Value traps. A 25% tariff on Mexican imports is a subsidy for foreign car companies like Kia.

Owns GM instead. Ford lacks the cash of GM, among other metrics, and lag GM in this sector.

They have warranty problems that make their earnings a black hole. He prefers GM, despite their weak dividend.