Stockchase Opinions

Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA Endo International ENDP-Q DON'T BUY Jul 29, 2019

A pharma with two-thirds of sales from generics. They're wrapped up in an opiod trial (that mostly involves JNJ). The stock has fallen off and if there is a negative judgement, Endo will get hit though JNJ will bear the brunt.

$3.030

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Healthcare
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

COMMENT

This is for the risk-takers. The stock was close to $70 a share within the last 18 months. Now it is around $13. The concern is that their business model has gone broke. They decided they wanted to acquire companies instead of spending a lot of money in the lab in R&D and not generating anything. They just reaffirmed guidance, and they should earn $4-$4.50. On a $13 stock, if they just earned half of that, it is one of your cheapest companies in the whole healthcare space. If we just get some stability in the outlook and know what is going to replace Obama care, this stock could easily double over the next 5 years.

TOP PICK

Moved their head office to Ireland, so it got kicked out of the S&P 500. The stock price has fallen from almost $100 to $13.57. His model price is $32.84, a 140% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $15.50.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 2/17 Down 45%.) He sees this is being dragged down by the generic drug selloff. When it was removed from the S&P500 index it was impacted negatively. It is also embroiled in the opioid crisis in the US. He likes the multiples and sees a model price of $24 – a potential 250% upside. He will buy more.

BUY

His model price is $44.72, which is a 300% upside. This stock is very high risk but it has been rising recently as he predicted it would. This stock, like Teva and Bausch Health, were part of the most undervalued sector of the market 9 months ago, have been rising, and probably have more to go.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
He's recommend this before and owns a lot of it. It reports earnings on May 9 and likely nothing will happen till then. Buy at $6-7. The stock fell last year, because all the generic drug-makers are vulnerable to lawsuits from American states during the opioid crisis. Endo has a pill more powerful than oxy contin Expects good earnings.
BUY
Likes it. This space is getting crucified. They recently settled a big lawsuit. It will earn $2.17/share in 2019 and $2.30/share in 2020. It trades at 1.5x earnings--very cheap. He has a trading position in ENDP.