Dennis Mitchell, CFA Dream Industrial REIT DIR.UN-T WEAK BUY Aug 02, 2013

Short-term moves are quite hard to predict, but on the monthly, momentum is currently negative. This means over the next month or more we might expect the probabilities of lower prices to be a bit higher than higher prices. On a weekly basis, momentum is bouncing back, and we might see a slight bounce over the next week or two, but there is resistance at $13. We expect there to be fairly strong support at $12.3, and if that is broken, then $11.5 may be up next. If it can break $13, then $14 is the next area of resistance. Overall, it's been in a downtrend for over a year, but we continue to like its fundamentals, and it pays a strong distribution yield.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

He focuses on supply and demand, and then goes bottom-up looking for discounts. Fundamentals in industrials in Canada and Europe are far superior today to US multi-family, especially in the Sunbelt. 

It's a new construction supply problem, and demand won't be able to keep up. DRR.UN owns an older portfolio in key Sunbelt markets. Wide discount to NAV. Low liquidity, so no premium.

DIR.UN has stellar internal growth prospects. Spread between in-place rents and market rents gives them an advantage. He'd choose this one. New construction will fall off 15% into next year, and empty space will be absorbed.

Great setup. Will capture the spread on market rents. Book value is near $17, so it's at near a 25% discount to NAV. Single-digit growth this year and next. Europe is a great story, logistics of e-commerce really starting to have an impact.

Attractive valuation, about 25-30% undervalued. Last-mile distribution. Europe is seeing positive fundamentals, especially in the Netherlands and Germany. Add on weakness, sell on strength.

Industrial, but small- and mid-bay segment. In other words, urban distribution warehouses which are somewhat immune to new supply. 2/3 of the portfolio is in Canada, 1/3 in Europe. In partnership with government of Singapore. 

Wide 28% discount to his estimated value in the range of $16.50. Yield is 5.9%.

Very good company with industrial properties in Canada and Europe. Recent pullback in share price has created buying opportunity. Owns shares in portfolio. Nature of short term leases agreements not a huge factor on revenues - expected to remain strong. 

Was on path to close the gap to NAV, which is around $16-17. Hit by concern over tariffs, but he thinks it's well insulated by demand of "last mile" e-commerce. Rents are far below market, so still has internal growth in rent earnings. Attractive development pipeline. Risk/reward is really to the upside.

Great opportunity to add.

Industrials have a question mark over them, but if this ETF gets cheap enough, it's a strong long-term buy. It pays a lot of income. Industrial REITs 6-8 months ago were unattractive and expensive, but now should be on the minds of income investors. This could fall to $9. Good managers.

Cash flow per unit was 26c, matching estimates. Revenue $121.4M, slightly better than estimates. EBITDA of $91.5M, 7% ahead of estimates. Cash flow per unit increased 5.8% year over year. NOI rose 3.1%. Net rental income increased 6.8%. Total assets were stable at $8.1B. Payout ratio dropped four points to 69%. Occupancy dipped marginally to 94.5%. We would consider the results fairly solid in light of industry conditions. The stock remains very cheap at 9X cash flow.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

More of a GTA focus, plus some European assets. So we're relying on the economy once again. There was that huge boom in industrial during Covid, rents peaked, supply came on, and rents dropped. Likes it here, as it's still growing very well; lots of leases turning over in next couple of years at double current rates. He's hoping for no recession in Canada; but if he's wrong, industrials will feel more pain.