Stockchase Opinions

Don Vialoux PowerShare's DB Commodity E.T.F. DBC-N TOP PICK Nov 30, 2015

The US dollar has been getting stronger the last three weeks, but the commodities bottomed over the last two weeks. December 16th will be the tip off for the US dollar to roll over. The lower US$ will have a direct impact on commodity prices.

$14.190

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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A broad commodity portfolio based on the Deutsche Bank commodity index. This is a smart index and Deutsche Bank has optimized the rolled (?) feature of futures in order to outperform the broad Dow Jones commodity index.
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(A Top Pick Nov 30/15. Down 11.91%.) An example of the right idea but the wrong investment product. The idea was that the US$ was peaking at 100, and was going to start going lower, which was going to help commodity prices in general. It turns out this particular product is heavily weighted in energy.

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Retail investors can’t buy commodity futures themselves. An ETF like this one can give retail investors access to the pure commodity space. He thinks commodities are poised to do well, and this is a way to ride the set of them. Investors will not get the leverage that they would get from buying the stock. If oil prices go up 10%, some oil companies will go up 20%. Investors will see the 10%, not the 20%. They also won’t get the risk.

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(A Top Pick May 08/18, Down 13%) It was at an all time low at the time. Some of the commodities did well but oil dragged the whole thing down. The thesis is even stronger now. It's an ETF and will not kill you.
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A commodity ETF with almost 50% in treasuries, plus a yield kicker.

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Canada doesn't have an ETF offering broad commodity exposure, so there's this one from the US. This is the go-to one, holding energy, metals and agriculture, balanced and holds dividend payers.