Opinions
Andy Nasr
Capital One Financial Corp
COF-N
TOP PICK
Jan 09, 2015
$79.370
Stock price when the opinion was issued
finance
leasing
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TOP PICK
*Short*. The Company derives a good chunk of its revenue through its credit card business of about 40%, and its auto financing business, another 20%. Of that business, approximately one 3rd is subprime. One weak link in the US market is the subprime market where delinquencies and some of the charges are going to increase. Dividend yield of 2.1%. Thinks the stock can trade down to $59. (Analysts’ price target is $98.)
finance
leasing
WEAK BUY
It's the 10th-largest US bank, at 8x PE. They expanded from credit cards into banking, and are building a strong brand. They're using technology to drive efficiency, will move to the cloud later this year. The trouble they'll have is that their client base on the retail side is weaker than peers like JP Morgan. COF isn't expensive and have grown impressively. Tech will make them more efficiency and overall COF will perform better post-Covid.
finance
leasing
This is a play on an increasing consumer spending and loan growth. It has been really hard for the US consumer to get a loan unless they had a pristine credit score. Credit card defaults and mortgage defaults have been the lowest they have ever been. Credit scores at origination have been as high as they have ever been. Eventually, as unemployment continues to get wound down and as consumers feel better because consumer confidence is high, there should be an acceleration of borrowing which plays right into this company. Valuation is reasonable and the balance sheet is in good shape. You should see outsized dividend growth going forward as they start to execute on their buybacks and return capital to shareholders. Credit card receivables in the US are still 15% lower than they were in 2007. Yield of 1.5%.