Stock price when the opinion was issued
Steel is the most primary of all industries. Any country that becomes industrialized, wants a steel industry. China produces and consumes over half the world’s steel. They have so many steel plants right now that the only real product for them is iron ore. He wouldn’t invest in the still company because there is overcapacity globally. In terms of iron ore, the fundamentals are okay but not terrific. Growth is very slow in China right now down to 7.5%.
A pure iron ore play. After a few years of downturn, iron ore prices looked like they were ready to bottom out in 2014. Problem is, the stock is anticipating an increase so it has had a bit of a move up after hitting its low. Not a huge fan of iron ore and he can’t see a lot of upside for this company for the next couple of years.
A commodity stock, and will be more volatile than most. It is so levered to large infrastructure steelmaking, but it is very hard to see how that is going to take off, unless you have a massive infrastructure spend. Growth outside the US is going to be pretty slow. Thinks you will see this just trade sideways for most of the year.
His general view on iron ore is a little negative. If you look at the supply/demand dynamics, it is more skewed towards an oversupply situation. Feels we are going to be in a situation where it is going to be a surplus. Iron ore has had a nice run and almost got up to $100 a ton. Doesn’t think that is sustainable, and thinks it pulls back to the $60-$70 range.
He just took a position last week. Likes outlook on met coal and metals. China should be positive for these producers.