Stockchase Opinions

Jean-Francois Tardif Cervus Euipment Corp. CERV-T PAST TOP PICK Jul 07, 2009

(A Top Pick June 23/08. Down 44.2%.) Deere dealerships. Expected agriculture to not get hit with the down draft. Still bullish on agriculture. Makes more than $2 a share but earnings are expected to go down this year. Extremely cheap. Yield of 8.9%. Bullish on Western Canada. Good management.
$11.950

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc consumer products
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Agricultural equipment, mainly John Deere. They buy heavy equipment dealerships at about 2 or 3 X earnings. Have also started buying Bobcat dealerships in Alberta.
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A consolidator of John Deere dealerships, J. P. Construction Equipment and Bobcat in Western Canada. Acquiring at 3X to 4X pre-tax earnings. Many owners are getting older with no exit strategy. Larger operating organization gives better synergies, buying power and natural operating leverage. At 9.2X earnings, with growth rates accelerating north of 20% and a 6% distribution, it presents a great opportunity.
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A consolidator of agricultural dealerships. John Deere is their focus but also have 5 Bobcat dealerships. Farmers are buying new equipment because all their input costs are becoming more expensive.
TOP PICK
Owns John Deere dealerships in Western Canada. He is bullish on Western Canada and agriculture. Q1 margins went from 15% to 19%. If you apply this to $350 million revenue it would be a $14 million increase in earnings. Potential of $3 earnings this year versus $1.50 last year.
TOP PICK
Operate John Deere dealerships in Western Canada. Agriculture and Western Canada are booming and they intend to buy more dealerships. 1st quarter showed very strong margin expansion. Some expectations are for 30% growth this year. He is expecting $2.50-$3.00 of earnings this year. 4.9% yield.
COMMENT
Own a number of Deere dealerships in Western Canada. He is very bullish on this. Recent results showed they were up year-over-year. Believe earnings were about $2.46 so at this price, stock is very cheap. 13% yield should be safe.
BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Shares are cheap on all counts. Potential for LT dividend growth. Rightsized ops, beating expectations. Market needs time to warm up to CER.