Stockchase Opinions

Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Cardinal Health Inc CAH-N BUY ON WEAKNESS Nov 01, 2024

3rd largest pharmacy distributor in the USA. Good job at new products and pricing strategy. Has recently streamlined operations. However, stock price fully valued. Would recommend buying on weakness (below $95/share). 

$116.130

Stock price when the opinion was issued

wholesale distributors
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SELL

Recently sold at slight loss, EPS won't have the growth trajectory he thought. Announcement out of left field that they lost a contract and revenue would decline substantially. Reasonably stable business. Over time, will probably be an OK holding. But now market won't have the same confidence in management to execute, stock will be hobbled. He'd look again on further decline.

HOLD

Healthcare strong, but stock performance mediocre. Will host CEO to get more answers. 

BUY

In pharma space, prefers growthy areas such as distributors like CAH and MCK.

HOLD
XLV vs. individual names.

XLV gives you a basket of names, with some winners and some losers. LLY is the top holding, that's a winner. Also holds JNJ and PFE, which haven't done particularly well. 

He owns NVO, MCK and CAH. He likes those companies where the only serious competition comes from 1 or 2 others, as they can control pricing power. Diabetes and weight loss are definite growth areas. See his Top Picks.

SELL

Scores 4/10 on value, 3/10 on fundamentals. Try to avoid. If you're in it and looking for an exit, now's not a bad time because it's had a pop YTD. Only about 4% more upside to analysts' price targets.

She prefers larger, less volatile companies that are a bit more secure. Try UNH or big US pharmaceuticals.

BUY
Sell before the take-over by Mars?

Last week, they reported a top and bottom line beat and raised guidance. Q4 revenue grew 12% YOY

HOLD

Likes, and owns. As people age, volume of drugs required can only increase, benefiting a name like this.

BUY

Healthcare space provides nice combination of growth with stability, in case we get into latter stage of economic cycle. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 15/24, Up 23%)

9% forecast growth rate, trading ~14x forward PE. Not a bad valuation to growth rate. Great chart of higher highs and higher lows. Outpacing S&P since late 2021. Pricing power and favourable demographics. Yield is 1.6%.