Opinions Stockchase Insights
British American TobaccoBTIHOLDAug 25, 2025
Stockchase InsightsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 27, 2026. Market Open.
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Still likes it. It;'s had a big run, but has sold off long-term on ESG terms. A sustainable dividend. Best to trim if you're ahead this year, but if you sell all your holding, you lose that dividend.
Darren SissonsTotal return also benefited from the currency differential. Up significantly, time to trim -- especially with inflation and potential unemployment spike.
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One of the real drivers is the substantial dividend and he sees it as a bond proxy. The long term dividend yield is about 45% along with some growth.
Darren SissonsPremium content
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Premium contentBritish American Tobacco plc is a British multinational company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, tobacco and other nicotine products. The company, established in 1902, is headquartered in London, England. As of 2019, it is the largest tobacco company in the world based on net sales. Social media mentions are up 300% in the past 24h.
This business is very out of favour, despite transitioning to vapes. It pays a sustainable 10% dividend and are buying back shares. Even if shares don't move over 10 years, you will get 100% of your money back.
(Analysts’ price target is $41.33)Darren SissonsPremium contentBritish American Tobacco plc is a British multinational company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, tobacco and other nicotine products. The company, established in 1902, is headquartered in London, England. As of 2019, it is the largest tobacco company in the world based on net sales. Social media mentions are up 418% in the past 24h.
The sector has been re-rated somewhat, and investors are anticipating lower interest rates going foward. In its recent earnings release, BAT indicated organic revenue growth would land at the top of its 1-2% range. Though not a formal guidance raise, the comment implies modest improvement. However, organic operating profit guidance was held at 1.5-2.5% -- a clear sign the company will continue investing in its next generation platform. With consumers adopting new products quickly and competition intensifying, sustained R&D is essential. To fund this, BAT must keep maximizing profits from its traditional cigarette business, now aided by a recovery in US revenues, the first positive result since 2022. The company maintained it guidance on currency, with a transactional headwind of 1.5% and translation hit of 4%. Consensus now sees adjusted EPS declining mid-single digits, partly offset by share buybacks. Valuation has gone from about 8X earnings to 12X earnings, with the dividend now 5.01%. Business is improving somewhat, but the usual risks remain. We would consider the 72% one-year gain 'a bit much' here and certainly would not expect these returns to be sustainable. While we would still consider it a solid income stock, we would be fine taking some off the table.
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