Stockchase Opinions

Darren Sissons Brown-Forman BF.B-N DON'T BUY Mar 04, 2025

Millennials are not drinking as much as the older generations. Maybe they're not going out as much. This industry performs better in recessions. Though an excellent franchise, the stock hasn't gone anywhere. Chinese sanctions hurt Brown. Also, paying in CAD adds a 40% premium. The LCBO boycott will have an impact.

$33.040

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

A great company. Some of their brands are Jack Daniels and Finlandia. Staples is probably a good place to be at this moment. It has been doing well as long as he can remember. Fantastic Return on Capital at 19% for over 9 years.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick May 18/17, Down 8.22%) It was interesting at the time. There was speculation they would be bought out. He bought it because he liked the company regardless. The stock came back down to normal. He would not buy it because of speculation it would be bought out. He would not change his mind on this one. He still likes it. He likes the consistency. They have some strong brands and the stock is chronically undervalued.

DON'T BUY

Product demand is declining.

DON'T BUY

He used to like this stock, but has reversed his position. Brown's liquor are no longer in style. They reported Dec. 6 sales and earnings coming in light and, worse, they slashed their full-year forecast. Stocks plunged 10% in a session and have rebounded, but still you should ring the register. Their traditional markets (namely the U.S.) are flat, and only emerging markets are up 

BUY

They've missed five-straight quarters, but the most recent one beat cleanly top and bottom. Organic sales grew 3%, instead of an expected decline, for instance. Also, they shaved their full-year capital expenditures outlook, also positive. Successful brands: Woodford Reserve, Diplomatico Rum and Jack Daniels. Struggling are both tequila brands, though (too much competition in the U.S.). Overall, a good report and shares popped after the report.