Stockchase Opinions

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. AvenEx Energy Corp AVF-T HOLD Jan 19, 2010

Eclectic mix of assets. Roughly 50% oil and gas, 50% financial and also 500,000 square feet leased real estate space, 2/3 industrial and 1/3 retail. Would like to see some strategies and growth mechanisms before buying.
$5.720

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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STRONG BUY
9.8% yield. Two thirds an oil producer and one third butane/propane/ethane marketing business that provides a steady cash flow. Their gas is only 2% of their output. Payout ratio last year was 56%.)
HOLD
Had a dollar plus move in both directions, in Oct, recovered. So it's a very steady trader. Thinks it might go up a bit.
COMMENT
Small junior oil. Lowered its dividend so took a hit. Had some gas and the hedges are coming off. Looks at it as short-term pain for long-term gain. He is currently considering adding to his position at this price. Any time below $4.40, it is a Buy.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Jun 7/11, Down 29.66%) They cut the dividend about 6 weeks ago. He sold most at $4.93 and is now buying back. Only pays out 60% if gas averages $2. He would hold it but watch gas like a hawk through the summer. 11% dividend. Stock may bounce back a little more.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Jun 7/11, Down 39.50%) Cut dividend a few months ago and he sold the bulk of his stock. Only paying out 60% of their cash flow. There needs to be some catalyst now. He would wait until the end of the summer to buy back in.
COMMENT
Was trading in the $5 range but took a big drop in April and continued to drop. At some point, a Stop should have been put in, probably $4 range.
DON'T BUY

Junior oil/gas producer that cut the dividend, to his surprise. It has continued to decline to the point where that he has started thinking about it as a possible re-buy at some stage. They were pretty close to the edge as far as cash flow goes and, as well, they are about half gas. If prices stay where they are, they are completely fine. Payout ratio is 65% on a run rate. They could cut the dividend again. He is going to wait 3 months through the shoulder season and if gas doesn’t go down and they haven’t cut, it will probably be pretty clear and they might look at it.

HOLD

High-yielding with a 13.5% dividend. About half oil and half gas. Cut the dividend last spring worrying about natural gas prices dropping drastically over the summer but since then North America had a hot summer so natural gas storage looks better. Surprised the stock isn’t a bit higher. Payout ratio is only about two thirds.

BUY

Looks like they did not have to cut the dividend after all. He could see someone buying it. It is not following nat. gas prices any more. You can hold it, there is no further short term problem.

HOLD

Recently announced they will be merging with Pace Oil (PCE-T) and Charger Energy (CHX-X) into a new company called Spyglass and stock price has dropped. Believes this is because of the aggregation of the 3 enterprises and their relative values as of today. A “show me” story. Has confidence in management.