Stockchase Opinions

David Driscoll A.O. Smith AOS-N BUY Oct 08, 2021

Commercial and residential water heaters and purification systems. Still likes it. Not a good entry point right now, but getting close. Has not been disappointed owning this. Good chance for more demand with infrastructure renewal. New homes are also a tailwind. Good long term investments. Buy around 20% off highs, so around high $15.
$64.230

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc industrial products
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BUY
Water boilers and filtration technology. Increasing penetration into India, and this will be the catalyst. Grows free cash flow by about 12% per year. Dividend has grown by about 22% over the last 5 years.
HOLD
Fundamentals are still good. Positive organic growth from US water purification business. Increase in residential water heaters in US. Flattened losses in China and India. Trading at 24x earnings, not that bad in today's market. Dividend has continued to grow. They'll be part of any breakout in the economy.
BUY
They make water boilers for homes and businesses. Has owned this since 2014. Buy now on weakness. They US their biggest market, but they're also growing in China and India. He's not worried about a recession, because homeowners are chained to their homes and won't move, so they will have to replace their water heaters/boilers eventually.
HOLD
Lower multiple at 18x earnings. Water purification as well as fuel-efficient water heaters. Lower price to book and price to sales. Dividend growth rate in 15% range.
COMMENT

Heating and thermostats are a good space, but he prefers Carrier for their European acquisition.

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TOP PICK

A. O. Smith Corporation, with headquarters in Milwaukee, Wis., is a global leader applying innovative technology and energy-efficient solutions to products manufactured and marketed worldwide. The Company is one of the world's leading manufacturers of residential and commercial water heating equipment and boilers, as well as a manufacturer of water treatment and air purification products. Social media mentions are up 500% in the past 24h.

BUY

Compound annual returns have been 14% over 10 years, 17% over 20. He's owned this for a long time and sees no reason to sell it. Yes, a slowdown in US construction effects part of their business, but there will be long-term growth in China. Growth rates will endure. Water remains a major issue in the world.

BUY

Water filtration and boilers. Big trend around the world with population growth. Stumbled on sales in China, whose economy is struggling. Moving into India, where it's been a great success. Future is bright. Add to your position if you're not already overweight.

Dividends grew 13% last year, 11% per year over 5 years, 35% per year over 10 years. Getting paid to wait. Sometimes the market just doesn't recognize the value of a company, and then some catalyst (impossible to know what or when) comes along to unlock value.

TOP PICK

Water filtration, boilers, water technology. About 75% of sales are domestic US, so tariffs are not much of an issue. Things like devastation from California wildfires will push demand. Missteps in China and India. Dividends continue to grow ~12% a year. High quality name, relatively cheap compared to historical levels. Yield is 1.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $82.83)