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Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. (ANS.TO)

TOP PICK

Oriented strand board (OSB). Very much levered to the housing markets, especially in the US. Expecting margins to improve. Trading at about 3X enterprise over EBITDA while their peers are trading about 6 times.

WATCH
Coming back to life from 2008-2009 when there was almost no trading at all. Volume is picking up and becoming much more consistent. Spike this year shows some motion but you don’t see the volume. Starting to consolidate a little. Not an active trader. If it drops below $3, it looks like a very dangerous stock.
DON'T BUY
Until there is a sign that housing has bottomed out, these stocks are going to be under pressure.
DON'T BUY
Classic situation of a very cyclical company where raw statistics are backwards looking. Produces oriented strained board and prices have been very high but are now close to cash/cost of operation. There will be a huge decline in their earnings. Have a lot of debt.
BUY
Game wasn't very impressive earnings at about $6 per share. Positive on constructive starts even though it will ease over time.
DON'T BUY
Very illiquid making it difficult to trade for fund managers.OSB panels have had a great run but can see them staying at this level. Good lumber Co., but tightly held by a small group of shareholders. Fully valued.
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