Darren Sissons Applied Materials AMAT-Q DON'T BUY Aug 26, 2025

Still a decent runway ahead. 12-month price target of $258. Has built a moat around the wafer and fabrication side, over 50% market share. Buy it here around $198, another 1/3 in low $180s, and final 1/3 in low $170s.

Potential topping pattern. Could be the top of the recent strength. Would not recommend buying at this time. Wait for trend to reverse upwards. 

It reports Thursday. Watch for the decline on revenues from China YOY. When LAM Research reported, AMAT rose. Options imply a 6% move.

Watch for the decline on revenues from China YOY, but the worse has been priced in already.

It ranks #3 in its sector. They have a lot of exposure to China, which worries many.

Is breaking out and their runway is long, given the AI boom.

Had a decent quarter, but terrible guidance, 10% below the street in a sector that should be humming (semis equipment). AMAT has responded negatively for the last 6 quarters. Is not performing. He sold.

Peers Lam Research and KLA Corp are performing well, but AMAT is an anomaly, not executing.

It is well balanced between different sectors and good for the long term. His preference is KLA Tencore (KLAC) which is dominant in the space. It is up 29% over the year so you could step in now.