AllstateALLTOP PICKSep 06, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 03, 2026. Market Open.
For companies with intensive balance sheets, he sometimes values them on price to book (tells you what are you paying purely for the value of the shareholders equity).
Trades at a discount to JPM probably because JPM is better, bigger, with better structural profitability. Some stirrings in the P&C markets of upcoming global softness, so premiums won't go up as much as before. Price competition will most likely depress profitability in the sector.
He'd prefer the banks.
It is the premier property casualty company in the U.S. Over the past decade it has had double digit dividend growth, huge share buybacks, great cash flow and a very disciplined approach. It is an incredible asset allocator and also cheap. Its 3 1/2% dividend could double over time. The stock is down a little due to supply chain issues which increases the costs to fix houses and cars, but these issues are temporary. An app that tracks driving habits can give the client a discount but it gives the company a strong picture of those habits.
Increase in catastrophic losses means most insurers are suffering this year. For P&C insurers, bad news is good news, as they just raise prices. Great capital allocators. Raise dividends. Favour profits over market share, so divesting unprofitable businesses. Spectacularly well run. Free cashflow machine. Yield is 3.28%.
(Analysts’ price target is $125.32)