Opinions
Cameron Hurst
Air Lease
AL-N
COMMENT
Mar 02, 2016
$30.900
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Financial Services
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TOP PICK
They are expecting to grow revenues and earnings 25% next year and it is at 7 times earnings. This management team is building their second company of this sort. The 737max should resume service in January. They have 4-5% of their aircraft being the Maxes so their exposure is quite manageable. (Analysts’ price target is $55.20)
Financial Services
HOLD
It's been hit like all airline stocks during this lockdown, and has fallen the most in his portfolio. It's the blue-chip airplane leasing company in the world, which is a plus. They own planes in the first third of their shelf life, another positive. They have a strong balance sheet. Another plus is that Asia is their biggest customer as well as eastern Europe, but not America, which has been disproportionately hit by the virus. He still likes it.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 24/19, Down 22%) Going forward they are in the enviable position amongst competitors. The average age of aircraft leased to airlines is 3.7 years. Older planes are retired first. So they will hang on to their AL-N aircrafts. Airlines will be in a weaker position to purchase aircraft so will be more likely to lease them.
Financial Services
PARTIAL SELL
A leader in its industry. The stock has held up through the pandemic. It is losing its appeal because it continued to grow and the valuation multiple has shrunk. It under-performed his expectations and now he thinks the growth prospects are going to diminish. There will be a benefit however where airlines who took on debt may have to lease, rather than buy new aircraft.
Financial Services
TOP PICK
Growing revenues and earnings nicely, multiple going down at same time. 7-8x PE. Largest leasing company of new aircraft in the world. Profitable during pandemic, raised dividend each year. Taking advantage of supply chain chaos, enjoying upward pressure on lease rates. Debt-ridden airlines that can't buy, lease instead. Escalators in leasing agreements. Yield is 2.14%. (Analysts’ price target is $54.83)
Financial Services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 14/22, Up 2%)
It is benefiting from the short supply of Boeing and Airbus planes so lease rates are going up. Planes are flying almost at normal levels again and the airline industry is much better. However the airline stocks are almost at levels where they were in 2020. This is a buying opportunity for airline stocks.
Financial Services
Aircraft leasing company. Earnings trajectory is very, very good. One of the problems is the chart. You can have a good company, but a technical drop in the chart. With a continuation of lower lows, you face a wall of sellers every time. From a bottom-up standpoint, he doesn’t mind this space at all, but technically this has a lot of work to do. If it gets through the gap between $30 and $35, he would be a little more constructive on it.