Frank Cappiello Arch Captal Group Ltd ACGL-Q TOP PICK Apr 09, 2004

This  Bermuda based $29 billion market cap travel focused general liability insurance company is well positioned for the expected 15% increase in global travel that is expected for the next 5-10 years.   It trades at 10x earnings, under 2x book value and supports a 21% ROE.  We like that cash reserves are growing.  We suggest placing a stop-loss at $63, looking to achieve $95 -- upside potential of 29%.  Yield 0% 

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $63) to $73 at this time.  

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $73) to $80 at this time.

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL has achieved its target at $95.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $80) to $84 at this time.  

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $84) to $95 at this time.  

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $95) to $105 at this time.  

Our PAST TOP PICK with ACGL has triggered its stop at $105.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment gain of 34%, when combined with our previous guidance.