Stock price when the opinion was issued
EPS of $1.54 beat estimates of $1.33; revenue of $4.67B beat estimates by just under 1%. Arch's underlying loss ratio may deteriorate this year, but remain solid. Still, 1Q margins were better than consensus in insurance and reinsurance, potentially leading to improved annual estimates. Underwriting income should worsen in 2025 on waning price increases, yet premium growth and still-expanding investment income remain earnings tailwinds. Even a higher underlying loss ratio in 2025 would likely yield a midteens return on equity, not much better than other Bermuda carriers, despite Arch's premium valuation. Continued consolidated favorable P&C reserve development was a positive and beat consensus. Catastrophes, including preannounced wildfire losses, were a bit better than expected (but certainly the company was impacted). EPS beat consensus, as catastrophe losses were lower and reserve development was higher than expected.
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Rare to find a financial company that grows 34% over the last 4 quarters and double digits the last 36 months.