Opinions
Keith Richards
Arbor Realty Trust
ABR-N
COMMENT
Sep 06, 2017
$8.070
Stock price when the opinion was issued
REAL ESTATE
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Thinks the Cdn$ is going to strengthen and could go up to $.80. Depending on the nature of this market that we get, it could go a bit higher. The chart shows a nice upward trend from early 2016. There is a little bit of exhaustion indicated by a double top, and the lower trend is slightly below that. He would be inclined to sell this, repatriate your dollars, and look for a couple of names in Canada that are doing really well in the real estate space.
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly This US based REIT has increased its dividend annually by 16% over the past 5 years. It trades at 8x earnings and just above book value. The company focuses on multi-family units and provides its own lending services. Rising interest rates aids their bottom line. Recent earnings beat expectations by 30% and support a 17% ROE. Its dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years and is at a manageable payout ratio under 80% of cash flow. Normally dividend yields of this level are not sustainable, but the cash flow supports its level. We recommend setting a stop loss at $11, looking to achieve $20 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 10.5% (Analysts’ price target is $20.33)
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A 9% yield, often indicates a fundamental problem. Chart shows a long term sideways move with a breakout consolidating, creating a bit of a triangle. You do not want to see it reaching its support level. If it broke out to the upside, that would be very bullish, but if it broke to the downside, that would be very bearish. To him, it is a very neutral looking stock. You could continue owning this, but he would definitely check the fundamentals, because the 9% yield scares him more than the chart pattern.