Stockchase Opinions

Peter Hodson Aastra Technologies AAH-T HOLD Aug 06, 2009

Came out 3 quarters ago and totally destroyed the numbers on the street and the stock took off on the assumption that they would continue to destroy estimates. They missed estimates and the whole thing reversed. Well run company and their cash position is high. You have to give it a couple of years.
$21.160

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Telecommunications
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TOP PICK
Acquired some Nortel (NT-T) technology and made a ton of money. Make wireless phones for home and particularly office both on the DECT standard in Europe as well as VOIP protocol. Costs have dropped dramatically. Looks cheap based on analysts estimates for the coming year. $3.62 at 7.5X PE for 2009 and ROE at 17% and estimates have been cranked up by 128% for the last 90 days.
HOLD
Much of the money for build out of infrastructure is still to come.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick June 22/09. Down 7.49%.) Ranks very low. Has been extremely lumpy. Last year-over-year earnings down 70%. Expected to improve in July quarter and reporting $.65 compared to $.51. Would like more consistency.
COMMENT
Canadian tech play that has struggled with very weak results. Good support because of the 4.36% dividend, which is sustainable, so probably not a lot of downside from here. Doesn’t like growth outlook but an attractive yield for a yield investor.
DON'T BUY
Traditionally been lumping in terms of earnings. Earnings expected to grow 50%. 11% ROE. Spikes up and down. Very well run but challenges with sales and dramatic changes in their business. Doesn’t own it because of volatility.
TOP PICK

By taking over shrinking companies they are able to generate incredible synergies. Growth in cash flow and cash on the balance sheet has just been tremendous. More than half their market cap is sitting in cash. Trading at net working capital, which is a very low-risk purchase price. Share count has been shrunk from 14 million to 11.5 million in the last 18 months. Expect they will deploy their cash into another acquisition, probably in Europe, which are very cheap right now. Also, expects there could be a special dividend. Yield of 4.35%.

TOP PICK

Large PBX (phone switch). Large distributor in Europe. He is seeing a stabilization in Europe, especially in the north. You don’t need the European business to come back to make money. They shrunk the float by 25% in the last couple of years. You will see them make an accretive acquisition or make a special dividend or be taken private.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Basically a massive free cash flow generating company. Involved in handsets and central office stuff. Ranks 200 in his model. Good company and reasonable cash flow but not a strong buy at this point.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 27/13. Up 156.02%.) Acquired by Mitel (MNW-T) in February. Prior to this acquisition, there was a special dividend paid.