PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 19/23, Up 32%)

Acquired 21 August 2024 at $459.92 USD. That's the risk with small caps -- they can often disappear from takeovers (founders want to monetize investment or it's attractive to a bigger fish).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 19/23, Up 31%)

A proxy for investing in Southeast Asia, tentacles in almost every country in that region. Lots of capital. Good credit rating. Dividend yield of 4.5-5%.

BUY

Since Covid hit, everything's slowed down. More pressure from the government. Long-term view is that its equipment will still need to be used to develop new drugs. Products needed by universities, governments, hospitals, biotech. Just have to wait for demand to pick up. Lots of opportunity for sales growth, just not at the same pace as before Covid. A buying opportunity.

HOLD
Buffett's departure.

It'll be a stable company moving forward, because it's diversified. Mainly in insurance, which is doing a lot better than banks right now. Set up to continue to grow over time, it'll just depend on how Greg Abel and his team will allocate capital.

DON'T BUY

Good part is that it's part of quantitative computing, and this is where the stock can rally in the next 5-10 years. Doesn't feel it can put enough money in to become one of the leaders in that area. That's why he owns MSFT.

HOLD

Stock will go sideways while all the Seven & I talks go on, because this could be a $46B acquisition for a company with market cap of $64B. Sales are fairly flat, and this deal would get the needle moving again. If no deal, it'll be on the hunt for something else.

SELL
Will deal go through?

Not doing as well as ATD on gas stations and growth, so there was pressure to change things up. PKI's credit rating is BB, while Sunoco's is BB High; so if you own, you should probably sell, rather than waiting to see what happens down the road. If deal fails, stock price will fall into low $30s.

BUY

Essentially an 18% dividend increase every year. Taking on the MSFT business model for SaaS, as subscriptions smooth out margins from quarter to quarter. Recent acquisition announcement raised stock. Growing margins. Asset light, little debt. He likes these serial acquirers. 

ROIC is 15%, WACC is 8.5%. That means a ton of free cashflow to make acquisitions, pay off debt, rinse & repeat. It's a small cap now, and he anticipates it growing and gaining attention.

DON'T BUY

HQ is in Minneapolis, domiciled in Ireland for tax purposes. Pacemakers, etc. No performance, really, for the last 20 years. Since Covid, demand and pricing power have fallen off. Dividend's not growing at a huge pace.

TOP PICK

Industries such as marine and food. Provides ways to be more efficient and less polluting. ROIC is 15%, WACC is 9%, leaving lots of FCF. As dividends grow, share price will follow. Swedish company, but does business all around the world. (Price in Swedish krona.) Yield is 2.05%, growing at 12% a year. 

(Analysts’ price target is $433.15)
TOP PICK

Having to cool data centres will be part of its business, and will see lots of growth. ROIC is 29%, and that's huge compared to competitors like HON. WACC is 12%. Dividend's grown roughly 40% over the past 10 years, and the return's been 35%. US homegrown, so no tariff concerns. Yield is 0.38%.

Small cap, extremely volatile, so start with a small 1/2 position. If he were an investor at home with $10k to invest, he'd put in $5k today. That gets the dividends coming in. See what happens with the growth and the economy. If stock falls but the metrics are good, that's the chance to buy the other half.

(Analysts’ price target is $500.67)
TOP PICK

Quality control in toys, food, auto parts, and so on. You name it, they get a piece of the pie. Small cap, tentacles throughout the world. Growing at a faster rate than competitors, giving it greater margins and cashflows. Recent Brazil acquisition in building/construction. Not a capital intensive business.

ROIC is 18%, WACC is 11%. Dividend's been growing 17%, and stock's risen 12% compounded annually. (Price in UK pounds.) Yield is 3.16%.

(Analysts’ price target is $5730.72)
COMMENT
Free cashflow.

A metric he focuses on. In your own life, if you have money left over after all the bills are paid, you then have financial flexibility. To learn more, the December newsletter on his website explains what they do, why they do it, and why they're not going to change. The March newsletter talks about risk on/risk off, and how investors have to deal with the volatility. Go to libertyiim.com.

COMMENT
Risk on/risk off.

Diversification is the most important thing. In a risk-off scenario, inflation and interest rates are rising but stock markets will go down. Interest rates go down, markets go up.

He thinks of himself as a financial contractor -- tell him what you want, and he'll build it for you. Do the financial plan first, and then create the portfolio. Structure, discipline, non-correlation, and diversified throughout the world. Plus bonds. For him, there have to be significant red flags to sell a stock.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The quarter was good. The question referenced was asking what it would take to get the stock moving more. We answered that debt and cash flow need to improve to get a higher valuation.  We are comfortable with the outlook and current valuation, but it needs a catalyst to get its mojo back. We would be comfortable owning it but would not see the need to buy more if owned.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free