Questions to consider during tariff uncertainty: How much debt does the company have?
It’s easier to understand how a company with no debt has a better ability to survive than a massively leveraged company. Balance sheet strength is important, always. But in a period of recession, when business and cash flow slow down, it becomes even more important. In a period of stagflation, where interest rates might rise even as the economy slows, balance sheet strength becomes even more crucial. The last thing you might want to own is a company laden with debt while rates move up. So take a look at the financial strength of the stocks you own. Obviously, a company with no debt and billions in cash on the books may be a safer bet than others. And, these companies do exist: a recent Bloomberg data screen notes 2,917 companies in North America with no debt at all.
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Yesterday, they reported a surprisingly strong quarter with in-line sales, an earnings beat, but share flatlined today. Why? UAL offered 2 sets of guidance--one for a stable economy and the other for a recession. That's a brilliant idea. Bookings could be stable or weaken. Both forecasts are certainly possible.
DVN is cheap, and has a decent and growing dividend. The balance sheet is reasonable. Its last quarter was decent. The stock decline seems more connected to the sector and commodity prices than anything company-specific. Devon's 1Q capital spending may rise sequentially, its total daily production could still fall -- driven by the timing of drilling and completion activity -- which should hurt free cash flow. Still, synergies from the Grayson Mill deal might have helped reduce capex in 1Q. Devon's unhedged realized oil price may rise slightly, given crude benchmarks shifted modestly. The company should be relatively exposed to this, with over a quarter of its 1Q daily oil production hedged against WTI volatility. Overall, Devon’s free cash flow may have increased in 1Q. The company’s scale and manageable leverage should give it a buffer if crude benchmarks remain relatively lower in the near term due to the impact of US tariffs and subsequent trade spats. We would be OK holding today, but it will require belief in the sector and some investor patience.
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