Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!
Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Jim Cramer - Mad Money commented about whether MMM-N, POWL-Q, ASC-N, AAL-Q, GIS-N, ELF-N, AEM-T, AXON-Q, MLM-N, LHX-N, PLTR-Q, MCK-N, CNC-N, UNH-N, CEW-T, BANK-T, VGRO-T, ZGRO-T, XGRO-T, CLF-N, USA-T, GS-N are stocks to buy or sell.
- Page 4/5
- Next Page
Believes gold prices are going higher. Stocks are overbought, and getting more overbought. He wants to buy into weakness. From his understanding, the costs are rising at a faster clip than revenues for a lot of mining companies. That's why valuations are remaining relatively depressed compared to the price of the underlying commodities today.
He'd defer a more detailed analysis to someone much better versed in the fundamentals of the sector.
If you're in a trade war and the world is slowing, commodity stocks (precious metals, steel-oriented) probably get weaker. That's the period we're in now. Probably a buy sometime soon, when we start thinking about recovery on the other end of this. Too early right now to dip a toe.
Pretty good company, one to play at some point.
80% equity, 20% fixed income. Great for the average investor. The one you want when you're bullish on equities. When you're defensive, you go into the balanced or conservative version which brings you down to 60/40 or 40/60 equities to bonds.
Right now, way too early to be bullish on equities. At some point in the next 6 months (ballpark: below 5000 on the S&P 500, and maybe even below 4500), it will be time to be much more growth oriented. Now is not the time.
80% equity, 20% fixed income. Great for the average investor. The one you want when you're bullish on equities. When you're defensive, you go into the balanced or conservative version which brings you down to 60/40 or 40/60 equities to bonds.
Right now, way too early to be bullish on equities. At some point in the next 6 months (ballpark: below 5000 on the S&P 500, and maybe even below 4500), it will be time to be much more growth oriented. Now is not the time.
80% equity, 20% fixed income. Great for the average investor. The one you want when you're bullish on equities. When you're defensive, you go into the balanced or conservative version which brings you down to 60/40 or 40/60 equities to bonds.
Right now, way too early to be bullish on equities. At some point in the next 6 months (ballpark: below 5000 on the S&P 500, and maybe even below 4500), it will be time to be much more growth oriented. Now is not the time.
BANK includes an option overlay to enhance the yield. CEW is equal weight. Compare the two to determine what you're looking for. BANK is probably the safer choice at this point. But if markets go down rapidly, there's no protection anywhere.
If you want more income, and you're cautious on the market, then BANK will probably do better than CEW. If you're defensive to neutral on the outlook, then a covered call overlay will add value to your portfolio. Though there will be less total return in the long run.
If you're bullish on the underlying equities, then just buy them at either equal weight or market-cap weight. In that case, the CEW would do better.
BANK includes an option overlay to enhance the yield. CEW is equal weight. Compare the two to determine what you're looking for. BANK is probably the safer choice at this point. But if markets go down rapidly, there's no protection anywhere.
If you want more income, and you're cautious on the market, then BANK will probably do better than CEW. If you're defensive to neutral on the outlook, then a covered call overlay will add value to your portfolio. Though there will be less total return in the long run.
If you're bullish on the underlying equities, then just buy them at either equal weight or market-cap weight. In that case, the CEW would do better.
Tech was good last week for a trade in the rally. Right here, he doesn't like it; very overbought. That's what happens when the volatility is as high as it is now. Lots more upside in the next 6 months, buy the dips. It's all tech, tech, tech. If you're a growth investor looking years ahead, that's where you want to be.
Sector's cheaper than it was months ago, but still not cheap enough yet. You'll get another opportunity.
Psychology of a Bear Market
Lots of indicators and forecasters are saying the economy's slowing and it's time to start worrying. His chart today depicts the S&P 500 since the US election.
Right after the election, there was a gap up and celebration as the S&P rose above 6000. That held until President Trump started rattling the tariff sword and gave the US "liberty" on April 2. It may well happen 2-3 years from now, but not yet. For a while it's going to be uncertain.
Lots of ways to define a bear market in terms of moves from peak to trough. But by the time you're down 20%, we officially call it a bear market. We came from 6100 to 4835, so technically we're there.
What happens in a bear market? You get lower lows and lower highs for some period of time. The rising 200-day MA starts to roll over, and we're starting to see that. The 50-day MA also starts to roll over; it will break below the 200-day MA this week, which officially defines a longer-term change in momentum. Stocks will typically fail at resistance. Biggest resistance right now, calculating a 50% retracement of the rally, would be around 5500. That just happens to be the old low that we made in March; it's also where the market opened on April 3 as we gapped down. Also where the market had a super-rally, and failed, on April 9. In a few weeks, the 200-day MA will start to roll over into the 5500 range.
If he's wrong and this isn't a bear market, just noise, the market should be able to get above 5500 and keep going. Something to watch in the next few weeks. If we are in a bear, the market will retest the low of 4835 at some point and likely go lower. This can go on for quarters or months. He thinks we need to see economic decay from a recession that would make the Fed aggressively start to cut interest rates without worrying about inflation. That's a couple of quarters, at least, from here.
More than likely, for the next quarter or two, we're going to be in a trading range. Volatility will be high. Don't look for it to break to the upside. In a standard recession, earnings fall 11%. Earnings targets have been brought down to no earnings growth this year.
Junior speculative. Not profitable. At the price for gold and silver today, if a company's not profitable you have to ask why. He doesn't play penny stocks, and certainly not in the junior mining area. A very challenging asset class; he learned his lesson 35 years ago.