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The market is complacent, taking its gains for granted, which is something that rarely ends well. The VIX is very low, about 14. He sees worrying signs in the junk bond spreads, based on the ICE BOFA US high-yield index option-adjusted spread. The spread between treasuries and junk bonds has fallen to its lowest level in 5 years, even lower than the spec mania of 2020-1, as low as summer 2007 (not good). He predicts that at the Dec. 18 Fed meeting that if the Fed talks DOWN the number of interest rate cuts for 2025, this will cause a huge sell-off in stocks--which may be buyable.
No, own it, don't trade it. Yes, it's expensive historically, but Apple tends to then issue good news. As for China, LULU just announced good numbers out of China, and the Chinese government will do some stimulus. Apple will get through this period. At least, hold Apple and see what happens.
They reported last week a nice revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat, and raised their full-year forecast. And yet, shares plunged 7%, because shares came into the report hot, up 23% in November. CHWY forecast Q4 margins at 3-3.8%, while the street expected 3.9% and was disappointed. Buy on this dip because of strong numbers: 20.2 million active members, more than expected, and $567.50 spending per active customer, a record high, and pet adoption in the industry growing around 10%, a positive sign. Also, their six vet clinics are bringing in new customers, and they plan to open two more. Also, the clinics are expanding to Canada (Toronto).
Last Thursday, they reported better than expected revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA. Trends are accelerating across all categories, including same-store sales. However, guidance was slightly below consensus in same-store sales and EBITDA margin rate. Also, the company sees the market as flat. Shares got hammered today by 11%, giving back its post-report gains. He prefers CHWY.
With the stock up 146% this year, some consolidation was needed and is probably healthy. We are seeing some big hits in many stocks today, with most having no news. Fundamentals are strong and estimates have ticked up in the past four weeks. The company has only really started to penetrate international markets, and likely has many years of growth ahead of it. It is not cheap, though, and investors are paying up for its market share and reliability. We would be very comfortable holding a position and buying into any futher weakness.
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NEO is well-positioned as a global supplier of advanced industrial materials, and its strategic partnerships outside of China (Brazil, etc.) allow it to mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by China's restrictions. The restrictions from China could cause rare earth prices to rise, benefiting NEO, and non-Chinese suppliers such as NEO can benefit from increased demand from countries and companies looking to diversify away from China. The uncertainty coming out of China is certainly not welcome for rare earth mineral investors over the near-term, but we think the company can see some positive impacts over the long-term as a result of this decision.
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GLXY initially went public via a reverse takeover of a Canadian shell company in 2018, which automatically made GLXY a Canadian-listed entity. It is a Canadian-domiciled company for regulatory purposes, meaning its parent company is incorporated in Canada, but its operational headquarters are in New York. Similarly, SHOP is headquartered in Canada, but also trades on the US stock exchange.
GLXY has had a substantial run up in price, and we think there may be an opportunity in the low $20s at some point, but this could require a lot of investor patience. Near-term, we think the high $20s can represent a good entry point, while acknowledging that it is highly volatile and could see big drawdowns at any time.
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Company Highlight: VersaBank (VBNK)
VersaBank (VBNK) is a Canadian-based, digital-only bank focused on specialized lending and deposit services. Established as one of the first fully digital banks in Canada, it operates without physical branches, leveraging technology to keep overhead costs low and streamline services for niche markets, including point-of-sale (POS) financing and commercial real estate lending. It mostly operates in Canada, but has recently expanded some services into the US.
Its stock price has recently seen strong momentum, up 58% year-to-date, and 125% on a one-year basis. It pays a small yield (0.4%), but both sales and earnings growth are expected to be strong in FY2025 and FY2026. Its historical growth rates have been robust, with a five-year sales and earnings CAGR of 16% and 19%, respectively. Net profit margins are expanding and with a market cap of $595.7 million and a reasonable valuation of 11.4X forward earnings, we think VBNK looks interesting here.
We can see that its net profits have really taken off over the past couple of years, and its outlook is increasingly positive. It has ongoing plans to expand its POS financing offerings in North America, and its cybersecurity segment, DRT cyber, is also expected to see growth in the coming years.
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We are seeing growing warning signs of a market correction because of increased speculation and leverage. There is more money now in leveraged ETF's than ever before. Sentiment is the highest in recorded history back to 1987. Also Google queries for day trading , swing trading, etc. are at all time highs. The market though could still go up. The S&P is on track to have two 20% back to back years which could indicate a third positive year.
