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Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) commented about whether DE-N, EPD-N, SM-N, MTDR-N, REPX-N, BP-N, WMT-N, RIVN-Q are stocks to buy or sell.

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TOP PICK

Our mission is forever. We are here to preserve the planet for our children and grandchildren. It's a huge goal, but we believe it's possible if people and industries join forces to make fundamental change happen. We create uncompromising products to explore the world and make it easy to join our project and make a difference. Social media mentions are up 1650% in the past 24h.

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TOP PICK

From our humble beginnings as a small discount retailer in Rogers, Ark., Walmart has opened thousands of stores in the U.S. and expanded internationally. Through innovation, we're creating a seamless experience to let customers shop anytime and anywhere online and in stores. We are creating opportunities and bringing value to customers and communities around the globe. Walmart operates more than 10,500 stores and numerous eCommerce websites in 19 countries. We employ 2.1 million associates around the world — nearly 1.6 million in the U.S. alone. Social media mentions are up 155% in the past 24h.

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TOP PICK

Our purpose is reimagining energy for people and our planet. We want to help the world reach net zero and improve people’s lives. We will aim to dramatically reduce carbon in our operations and in our production, and grow new low carbon businesses, products and services. We want to be an energy company with purpose; one that is trusted by society, valued by shareholders and motivating for everyone who works at bp. Social media mentions are up 1300% in the past 24h.

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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

REPX is active in the Permian basin, with over 65% of its production oil based.  Recently reported earnings showed the company increased earnings despite challenging commodity prices as production increased for liquids and natural gas side as new processing capacity came on line.  It trades at 6x earnings, 1.5x book, and supports a 25% ROE.  We like that cash reserves are growing, while long term debt is retired.  The dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 25% of cash flow.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $27, looking to achieve $46 -- upside potential over 25%.  Yield 4.0%  

(Analysts’ price target is $51.50)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

MTDR operates in the prolific liquids rich Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays.  Commodity prices have been challenging this year, but recently reported earnings improvements allowing cash reserves to grow again.  It trades at 8x earnings, 1.5x book and supports a 21% ROE.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $49, looking to achieve $74 -- upside potential of 21%.  Yield 1.4%

(Analysts’ price target is $74.44)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

SM is a Denver based oil and gas exploration company, who just acquired some key waxy crude in the Uinta basin, with rail connections to the Gulf Coast, in partnership with Crescent Point.  It trades at 6x earnings, 1.3x book, and supports a 22% ROE.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $37, looking to achieve $55 -- upside potential of 20%.  Yield 1.6%

(Analysts’ price target is $54.56)
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 08/24, Up 21.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with EPD has achieved its target at $32.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $27.00) to $28.50.

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 04/24, Up 15.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with DE has achieved its target at $425.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and maintaining the stop at $49..

COMMENT
Forecast for oil.

Investors are disappointed at $70 oil, and they should be. He had more bullish expectations coming into this year, with biggest disappointment being Chinese demand. Very few people would have forecast Chinese demand to be negative YOY for a couple of months. Thankfully, there are signs that it's now inflecting. One big energy trader believes that Chinese demand will be up 700k barrels per day next year.

It's kind of a moral victory. His call is that global oil inventories (his measurement of the balance between supply & demand) would hit all-time lows. And we're there today, which is great. Global inventories are at their lowest since at least 2017, US inventories are at the lowest since 2016.

In the olden days, used to be a very strong relationship between inventories and the oil price. As inventories fell, the price would go up. Today, looking at where oil "should" be, it should be about $81 WTI. But it's trading just under $70. There's a disconnect.

Why the disconnect? Market's concerned about 2025 and peak demand being right around the corner, demand weakness continuing, US shale surging, other countries like Brazil coming online, and OPEC ramping up to maintain market share. He feels that the market's a little too bearish on demand, US shale production is flat (Trump will see peak production over the next couple of years, a huge event). Plus, Trump will be ultra-hawkish on Iran exports, giving OPEC the chance to add barrels eventually, which will be the beginning of normalization of OPEC's spare capacity (not as high as people think). 

Demand is fine. Just look at the US economy, which is going like gangbusters. Supply expectations are too high. Market is tighter. Between $70-80 is reasonable over the next 12-18 months. You need Saudi to bring some of those barrels back to market.

He remains very bullish on the outlook. There can't be an energy transition when the demand for oil, nat gas, and coal continues to make all-time highs. Governments and organizations basing their constant negativity on ignorance warps sentiment about investing in energy, which translates into the valuations we see today.

DON'T BUY

Tricky. In penalty box based on disastrous year. Dividend needs $80 to be truly sustainable. Based on poor share performance, CEO's job may be on the line. Risk in Colombia, sentiment remains challenged. He owns a very small position, gathering option premiums. Better names out there for new $$.

WATCH
Bought at $8.50, now at $6.64.

Sentiment remains challenged in the space (a common theme today), even though the Energy Index is up about 20% YTD. People are hiding in large caps, with few funds coming to small- or mid-caps. Hard to see it outperforming. Yield is 10.7%, pretty hard to replace. Not a name for new money.

Look at his Top Picks today, and then decide if you want to let this go for tax-loss selling. 

HOLD

Comes down to what you're trying to achieve. A sleepy, not-get-rich-overnight name. He's happy to collect the yield of 7.6%, well funded down to about $50 WTI. Eventually, you'll get modest upside relative to commodities going up. Trades at half the valuation of PSK (he doesn't understand why).

COMMENT

Excellent company. Trades at 18x cashflow. FRU is cheaper at about 9x.

BUY

Has it in his main fund and his income fund. Pure-play Bakken producer. Off the radar of US institutions, as it's just too small for that market. Vast majority of free cashflow will come to shareholders as buybacks, and over time this will drive a re-rating. An opportunity for very good upside.