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It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

The Well, a new and dazzling commercial-office-residential behemoth in downtown Toronto, bodes well for Allied's future mixed-use projects.
Caveat: The payout ratio of Allied's near-9% dividend yield is almost 400%, though Bay Street feels that divvy is safe. Be patient with this one. It holds more upside than down, and you can collect that 9% while you wait. 

premium

It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

It must be hard playing second fiddle to the giant called Nvidia. However, AMD is also enjoying growing demand. Both both companies are equally volatile around a 1.68 beta, though AMD is perceived to be safer. AMD has enjoyed modest top- and bottom-line beats in three of its last four quarters, with one coming in-line. A good track record, even if it Nvidia eclipses it. 

premium

It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

Another Canadian momentum play is the parent company of the Brookfield empire. BN shares are hitting all-time highs these days after slumping from the weight of high interest rates. It's a consistent grower and holds a wide range of assets from renewable energy to real estate. Its private equity investment have been growing around 15% annually as this segment is hot among investors, 60% of whom are institutional investors. BN is established globally and is renown for buying distressed assets at cheap prices; they have around $150 billion to play with. BN has been trading at a discount to NAV from 18-26%. 

COMMENT
Market euphoria?

Market's actually in a pretty good spot. We're in the 2 toughest weeks of the year, but you always have to look at the state the market comes in on. We have close to 70% of stocks ahead of the S&P on the year, so a nice broad-based market. Equal-weight index is outperforming the market-cap-weighted index, which tells you that the average stock is beating the S&P.

Lots of sectors are working. The time to worry is when breadth is narrow, with only a small number of companies contributing, and if they were to break then you could get hurt. Great opportunity right now for investors to be diversified in the US, Canada, and globally.

So no, not too much euphoria. Lots of people are worried, which is good. In general, signs are pretty good for the fourth quarter.

COMMENT
Under the hood.

80% of companies in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day MAs. That's as good as it's been all year long. If you look at the conditions underneath the market surface, there are some big stocks that are struggling. But the market in general is acting really well.

COMMENT
Global exposure -- adding India, Latin America, Japan, and China?

Yes. Last year, he converted one of his funds to a pure global mandate, but ex-US (so, nothing to do with the US). The fund is up ~21% on the year. His view is that we'll have several years of global outperformance. 

The one market that was weak was China, and they really brought the bazooka out 2 weeks ago; the economy still has some work to do, but the market's probably put in its lows.

HOLD

Relatively low organic growth. Relies on making acquisitions to grow, and they've been successful. His choice is CSU, but you'll be OK in GIB.A.

HOLD

His choice in the space. Has spun out many of its investments. Very successful acquisition strategy.

HOLD

Great year. Shopper's has been really strong, and selling/prescribing GLP-1 drugs hasn't hurt either. Likes it, though it's run up a bunch.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Among his top 10 positions. Continues to execute strongly, well managed. Still lots of opportunities to grow. Has done well, but he wouldn't want to bet against it.

HOLD

Has done well. Happy to hold.

DON'T BUY

Infrastructure stocks have had a good lift over the last 3 months, as have utilities. Yield is 3.6%, and only growing 5-6%. He likes more dividend growth, usually north of 10%. You won't get hurt, but performance might be less than the market.

He prefers the infrastructure builders to the owners. Lots of $$ being spent building infrastructure, and a bit more leverage in the earnings.

COMMENT
Infrastructure.

He prefers the infrastructure builders to the owners. Engineering companies, and those involved in construction. Lots of $$ being spent building infrastructure, and a bit more leverage in the earnings. An example is WSP, which he holds.

HOLD

Big holding for him. He prefers the infrastructure builders to the owners. Lots of $$ being spent building infrastructure, and a bit more leverage in the earnings. Significant position in US power consulting with its latest acquisition; they'll be the largest in the US in this arena. 

Considered it for a Top Pick today. Technical setup is very good. Winning company, and the sector has a tailwind.

COMMENT
Using long-term moving averages.

Long-term moving averages are really important. A 200-day MA, or even a 150-day, is a great indicator of a long-term trend. Look to see if it's trading above it. But, more importantly, is the MA pointed higher or lower? 

Often when a stock comes off the bottom it might rally up and through the 200-day MA. But if that MA is headed lower, more often than not it's going to end up pulling back and bouncing along that 200-day MA until it gets swung higher.

All of his positions are above the 200-day. Usually if a stock goes below the 200-day MA, he wants to be gone. He wants to know the position of the 200-day as it's rising. Then he watches to see how far things get stretched above the 200-day, because often if it goes way high it can get pulled back in.

If you look at one of the big indices, you can tell whether it's in a structural, long-term bull market if it's trading above the 200-week MA.