DON'T BUY
PKI vs. ATD

Hands down, slam dunk in favour of ATD. Bigger and better. Scale is a significant advantage, especially on sale of fuel. Better at merchandising. More diverse global footprint. Amazing serial acquirer. Hunting big game with bid for 7-Eleven.

PKI has an activist investor rattling its cage for some time, with no resolution in sight. Activists usually get involved when assets are being mismanaged or under-managed, or management team's off course. Not earning same profits as ATD, despite similar end-markets.

SELL

On paper, looked pretty good. Problem was the bad neighbourhood, all production was in Colombia. Change in government, civil unrest. Production growth is negative, calling dividend growth into question. Yield is 13%, not sustainable. Get out while the getting's good.

BUY

Holding company; not strictly speaking a lifeco, though a lot of its NAV is tied up in GWO. Major investor in Wealthsimple. Multiple lines of business make it less volatile than an insurance company. Meanders along. Yield is north of 5%, growing at single digits.

Own and sleep well at night. No qualms. Capital appreciation plus dividend should throw off high single-digit or low-double returns.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

A must-own name. Not discretionary; its productivity suite is mission-critical for home and business. Cloud computing is doing well and taking market share in a growing category. Hardware, gaming, etc. Prolific cashflow. Will be a first mover and leader in AI. Off its highs, good opportunity to add. Over time, just keeps going higher.

BUY

Stock spent a long time underwater if you bought before the financial crisis. All of a sudden, has become the belle of the ball. Took off after de-risked LTC and annuities businesses. On wheels ever since.

TOP PICK

Deep value, turnaround story. Gentrifies warehouse and industrial corridors in Toronto. Also in Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver and Kitchener. Getting some love and accolades for The Well, multi-use residential & commercial & office. Former darling, compounding at 17% annual pace from 2003-2019. Trading at less than half book value. Yield is 9%, which he feels is sustainable.

People returning to office. Debt refinancing, construction financing. Macro tailwinds with interest rates falling. In its new first inning.

(Analysts’ price target is $19.33)
TOP PICK

Gold is at all-time highs. Producers have prolific cashflows. Safe way to get operating leverage inherent in a producer. Biggest gold producer in the world. Most mines are in geopolitically safe locations. Only gold producer in the S&P 500, so it's the go-to name. Conservatively financed, BBB+ credit. Big share buybacks. Non-core asset divestiture. Yield is 1.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $56.69)
TOP PICK

Very difficult couple of years, bounced back nicely after Q3 results. Last week's announcement of new CEO cleared some of the overhang of concern as to who would take over the reins. Also gave confidence that money-laundering fines and penalties would soon be in rearview mirror. Yield is 4.8%.

Franchise has been tarnished by wrongdoings in US, but not irreparably. Its roots pre-date Confederation. Will regain lustre. While waiting for regulatory clouds to part, rare opportunity to buy it at a discount on PE and price-to-book ratios compared to peers. Re-rating will happen.

(Analysts’ price target is $87.12)