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Poised to take a giant, bold leap forward with proposed friendly acquisition of 7-Eleven, the largest convenience store in the world by # of outlets. Biggest by market value is actually ATD itself. Acquisition is a big "if", would be synergistic. Shrew operators, extremely capable serial acquirers in a fragmented industry.
Fingers crossed for success in Japan. They won't do a deal unless it creates shareholder value. So if a deal is successful, you can bet dollars to doughnuts it will be priced well, strategic, synergistic, and will be reflected in a higher share price in due course.
Q3 was broadly in line with expectations today, setting aside the 1-time charge to settle the anti-money-laundering mess. Has indicated this overhang should be gone by end of year. Bank has some explaining to do, needs further management changes. Shored up capital ratios by selling SCHW, a good move.
They'll get through this. Shares are adequately discounted. Fixing compliance. Canadian unit is doing well. Integrating Cowan acquisition well. Big insurance settlements re wildfires. Short-term headwinds should dissipate and it will continue trajectory of high single-digit or low double-digit returns. He's keeping the faith.
De-risked US business, the weakest unit. He's looking at it, on shopping list, hasn't yet pulled trigger. Re-rated nicely, undemanding multiple, single-digit PE ratio. Yield is ~4%. Pay attention to chart validating fundamental changes, often a leading indicator of changes within. Wouldn't quarrel with investors taking a position.
Wise to consider "tail risk", highly improbable but impact would be severe. That's what risk management is all about. Risk is the product of probability. No cut would be rather shocking to the bond market, USD and all foreign currency trades (remember the recent Japanese carry trade chaos). Equity markets are begging for rate cuts. So you'd see a broad-based selloff in US equity markets. Not much would be unscathed aside from very low beta defensive sectors like consumer staples. Utilities, real estate, home improvement retailers, durable goods, and growth stocks would be affected.
Risk of not cutting in September is very, very low. As of yesterday, a 130% probability is priced in of a 25 bps rate cut on September 18. Very high confidence of sophisticated investors.
Look for clues tomorrow at the Jackson Hole press conference.
Good company, CEO has been there a long time. Family controlled. Capital allocation was really good for about 15 years, then started getting more hit and miss. Low organic growth industries, not much more than 3-4%. Acquisitions have let it grow faster than that.
Earnings growth has not lived up to historic record, starting to change. Back-to-back quarters of beating earnings expectations. He's starting to do some research on it.
Aggressive pursuit of pro consumer and 1-stop shopping proposition is helping take share, not only from LOW, but also from general suppliers. Acquisition of SRS takes them into pools, roofing, landscaping; expands its addressable market opportunity. Yield is 2.4%.
Core competitive advantages include expertly knowledgeable floor staff and expanded e-commerce and omnichannel capabilities. 17% compound growth rate over the last decade, bolstered by big share buybacks from time to time. Still 12% off 2021 peak. Trades at 24x earnings. Good combo of value and growth.
All growth. Category leader. Mobility, and has expanded into delivery (food and beyond). Freight platform. Premium subscription service for special treatment. Being a platform company means that it benefits from scalability and network effects. Significant barriers to entry. No dividend.
Advertising is now meaningful revenue. Financial performance has turned the corner. He expects earnings to grow 21% at a compound rate from 2023-26. Trades at 30x next year's earnings; pretty undemanding given growth prospects.
99% of revenues come from gold. Credible management, hits targets. Beat street forecasts in last 18 of 20 quarters. Good dividend growth history; paying one for last 40 years, 17% compound growth rate over last decade. Likes gold. Mines are located where there's little political risk. Yield is 2%.
(Analysts’ price target is $117.42)
Bullish on uranium. Nuclear renaissance, contributing to increasing demand. His choice in the space, as it's bigger and is actually producing.