Technology, but not like the .com bubble. These companies are making real money and lots of it. It's just that they're trading at 35x earnings instead of 25x, which would be a more fair value. A correction is coming. Avoid the cyclical names.
Lots of deep value out there, really good companies that have been beaten up because they have bad balance sheets. With interest rates coming down, that's where you want to look. Value outperforms growth for the next couple of years.
MOGO is a microcap fintech company which offers a comission free stock trading app and other apps providing personal loans. MOGO has more than 2M members, $9.9B in annual payments volume and a ~13% equity stake in crypto exchange WonderFi (WNDR). It is certainley an interesting company, but the fundementals are less exciting. Revenue growth for Q2 swung positive after many quarters of declines, but losses widened. Cash flows have historically been negative but swung to a small positive in Q2. We think the business is interesting, but we want to see revenue growth reaccelerate, signs of cash flow positivity and profitability. Additionally the company has quite a bit of net debt at $78M which is significant given its market cap is only $44M. The business is interesting and it is worth watching, but the size, debt, and growth risks are all too much for us to consider it.
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EPS of 1c missed estimates of 3.5c; revenue of $16.17M missed estimates of $16.46M. EBITDA of $4.75M beat estimates of 11%. Total sales rose 4.5%. Subscription sales rose 16.6%. SYZ bought back 85,700 shares. Canaccord raised its target by 50c to $12.50. Despite the 'miss' the results remain in line with the company's forecast, and high bookings and confidence talk from management are encouraging.
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EPS of 80c missed estimates of 85c; Revenue of $660.5M missed estimates of $678.1M. EBITDA of $157M beat estimates of $152.8M. Revenue rose 5.3%. EBITDA rose 6.8%. Guidance was largely maintained. The manufacturing segment is seeing some customer wariness and less bookings. It is a cyclical segment and we would not really consider this a red flag to the company. The stock is cheap and the payout at 61% (up from 57%) remains OK.
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Company Highlight: The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSG)
DSG is a global leader in on-demand software solutions that focuses on improving productivity, reducing costs and enhancing the security of logistics-intensive businesses. The main focus is on serving transportation providers (air, ocean, truck) logistic service providers (third-party logistics, freight forwarders, and customs brokers), distribution-intensive companies including retailers, and distributors for which logistics is a key part of their own product/service offering. DSG is one of the few high quality Canadian tech stocks and it has done an excellent job using acquisitions to drive growth being a long-term compounder.
In terms of its financials, its most recent results caused the stock to drop initially. Revenue grew 11% to $151.3 million, in line with estimates, and EPS of $0.43 slightly missed the estimates of $0.47. The balance sheet is strong with a net cash position of $231 million and DSG’s acquisition pipeline remains strong. DSG has historically traded at a premium valuation, currently above 50x forward earnings due to its attractive fundamentals. At these levels, reaction to quarterly results tends to be sensitive, although, the stock has recovered from the initial sell-off when these results were released. The company also does not pay any dividends.
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We are now at the tail end of quarterly reports. Sometimes investor sentiment pivots quickly not based on fundamentals as it did last week. The job numbers were a bit disappointing but in isolation were not enough to explain the volatility last week. The low income consumer, especially in the U.S., has been under pressure for some time but he is bullish on the major economies in Canada and the U.S. over the long term. You need a time horizon of 3 to 5 years. He is not super active in AI investing and their general principle is to buy quality companies with good balance sheets at decent valuations. This does not mean deep value companies.
He likes it and it is a core holding in their technology portfolio. It trades at 20X earnings which is attractive since the multiple is better than many of the other big techs. Open AI and Bing haven't taken search business away from them. He likes the underlying business and the advertising part too.
It is one of their top three bank holdings and is very international with divisions in Latin America and the U.S. It is good for diversification and getting to an attractive valuation as it tales good steps to improve things. He feels that the market reaction to its $2 billion acquisition was overdone.