HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

It is a positive signal that as CVE reaches $4.0B in net debt, the company will start to return 100% of its excess fund flows to shareholders. CVE production grew nicely by 8% in the most recent quarter. The share price was under pressure as the company reported a slight earnings miss of $0.57 compared to an expectation of $0.68, in addition, oil prices went down in the last few days and this also affected investors' sentiment for oil stocks. However, we think over a three – five five-year time horizon, CVE should do pretty well from the current level given the planned capital returns.
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HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

BEP.UN reported funds from operations of 51c, growing by 9% from the year prior, but just missing estimates of 52c. Revenue came in at $1.48B, increasing 22.9% year-over-year, but falling just shy of estimates of $1.49B.  The company deployed or committed $8.6B of capital ($970 million net to Brookfield Renewable) across multiple investments globally. BEP.UN secured contracts to deliver an incremental 2,700-gigawatt hours per year of generation, of which ~90% of development was with corporate customers. Distribution was unchanged. Not a bad quarter from BEP.UN as FFO and revenue saw decent growth, despite coming up just short of estimates. We like to see the increased demand from corporate customers and think this can be a growth catalyst in the future. 
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DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

BITO was the first US ETF that tracked Bitcoin. It uses futures contracts of Bitcoin, and this basically means that its tracking is inefficient and will often lag the actual price of bitcoin over time. 

On a year-to-date basis, BITO has declined 6%, while the price of bitcoin has increased 44%. A return gap of 50%. But, Bitcoin does not pay dividends, while BITO has a current distribution yield of 36%. This distribution yield has helped to bridge the 50% gap between the actual price of bitcoin and the year-to-date performance of BITO, but not entirely. So while the yield may seem enticing, the fund has lagged the actual performance of what it is tracking, and in the event of a decline in bitcoin, BITO is highly likely to underperform. 
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COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Fears of a Recession:

What to do? First, do not panic. Panic selling is never the right move. Many investors will sell today out of fear: fear of losing embedded profits or fear of further losses. This may be a 'normal' but harsh correction, or it may be the start of something more. We do not know. No one does. But the fear-mongers will no doubt get lots of media attention. Bottom line: Companies are still quite profitable and interest rates are sure to come down now. Companies are still hiring, just not at the same fast rate. Valuations, even in the AI sector, are not that high when looking at growth and historical comparisons. 

A recession is possible, but that is practically always the case in the economy. Most recessions are short. If one occurs we would expect it to be shallow as well, as investors have been already preparing for one for two years at least. 

One twist in all this is the US election, which may cause more volatility as we head to November. 

The plan: if as an investor you are not prepared to hold until the first quarter of 2025, we would ensure your cash levels are where you want them to be and you are well-diversified. Now is not the time to be a hero. If you have a longer time frame, doing nothing is probably the best strategy. It almost always is. If you have cash, we would be fine deploying some of it this week. We would keep some powder dry as the type of volatility we will see this week can last a while. Gold may be a good hiding place for those so inclined. But, bottom line, the world is not ending, it will just feel like it. Businesses, consumers and the market will carry on just fine, in our view. The correction may be harsh, but the steeper it is the shorter it should be as well. 
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BUY

Many feel the mag 7 are overvalued, but Meta deserves credit for having a real return on investment on AI.

BUY

They had a terrific quarter and in terms of AI, they've taken advantage of all the money MSFT has spent on AI by putting MSFT's platform to work for its customers for an undisclosed sum.

BUY

They delivered an imperfect quarter, sure, but he believes them when they say that the consumer is holding back because of this wild political situation and the Olympics. He trusts them and their reasoning.

BUY

Shares tanked today on a report that their next-gen AI chips will be delayed, but he has heard nothing to confirm this and believes that it's business as usual, that the chips will ship as scheduled. Even if the chip is delayed, NVDA is a buy at these levels because demand for the current ship is so strong.

BUY

Pays a 4% dividend and he predicts more acquisitions and IPOs, which will benefit MS' business.

COMMENT

Have cash handy, because there's more room for markets to fall though markets tanked today. The panic could come back. He's holding onto cash and is ready to buy, but buy in portions, not all at once. Be ready for more fear.

SELL

They have no credibility. Their balance sheet is terrible. It could bounce tomorrow. Sell half then sell more on a bounce.

DON'T BUY

Pays a 3.75% yield and they had a good season (they're a seasonal stock). He also likes their environmental products. But it trades at a too high 26x PE.

DON'T BUY

Had a great quarter, but is down 45% from its high, though still up 28% for the year. This is prone to profit-taking who will sell on any bad news, like today.

BUY

They own top real estate in coastal cities; office REITs are already recovering and will do better as interest rates decline. Occupancy is returning to normal. Pays a 6% dividend.

BUY

Pays over a 5% dividend. Was the top pharma, but slipped. Their purchase of Celgene disappointed while revenue growth has been negative. Earnings shrunk last year. But he likes the new CEO and him buying 3 companies in onocology and neuroscience, both growth areas. Also, there have been cost cuts. Be patient though. They reported a clean top and bottom line beat last week and issued very strong guidance. Trades at a cheap 7x 2025 PE.