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Last week, it was sell the rallies. This week, it's buy the dips. Who knows what happens next week? This year is all about active management. You have to go with the flow, go with the momentum.
In these volatile markets, stick to your discipline of buying in thirds. Not only buy in thirds, but also sell in thirds. Sell 1/3 within 5% of price target, another 1/3 at price target, and then re-examine and re-evaluate the price target for the final 1/3.
He'd have thought that if we were in danger, it would have happened already. Whereas all we had was a 5-6% pullback.
We started the year with expectations for 6-7 interest rate cuts in the US. Then it went back to 3-4, and now it's probably 1 or 2. Some are even saying none until next year. With that backdrop, it's pretty amazing that the stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has hung in there.
However when you look at the Russell, it's a different story. Smaller-mid caps are more sensitive to interest rates. Large caps have a lot of debt, and interest rates influence them, but they have constant cashflow.
There's a benchmark provided by the American Association of Individual Investors. It very much shows when things get overheated or oversold. As of a couple of weeks ago, it was overbought. The end of last week, it was oversold. So the pendulum keeps swinging faster and faster, and you just have to keep your eyes on the overbought/oversold benchmark.
You can almost pick any of them. Even TSLA was a bit of a surprise, and you had to have a lot of faith in the whole robotaxi and FSD concept. If he were to pick one that would stand out, he'd choose GOOG.
GOOG reports tomorrow. Today is MSFT and IBM, and they should do pretty well. Interesting in how GOOG frames the whole Gemini offering in AI. Gemini stumbled, but has now come back into fad. So you could look to add that one.
He'd have to look at all the price targets, but one that's been beaten up is AAPL. But it probably won't spotlight its AI until June. Probably the most limited downside at this point, so you could also add that one.
There are probably 4 in this category of semiconductor equipment suppliers. LRCX does design, manufactures the equipment, refurbishes and services the equipment. 12-month price target of $1069, decent runway. Reports soon. Very conservative, so we won't get surprised.
ASML using ultraviolet to etch chips has become the cat's meow, carving out a nice niche for EUVs. It's a bit cheaper. Reported last week, positive on top and bottom lines but lowered guidance. It sees demand coming back very strong in second half. Semis are a big thing with the AI revolution. Opportunity to buy a fantastic company at a cheaper price. 12-month price target of $1070.
For new money, put half in each.
There are probably 4 in this category of semiconductor equipment suppliers. LRCX does design, manufactures the equipment, refurbishes and services the equipment. 12-month price target of $1069, decent runway. Reports soon. Very conservative, so we won't get surprised.
ASML using ultraviolet to etch chips has become the cat's meow, carving out a nice niche for EUVs. It's a bit cheaper. Reported last week, positive on top and bottom lines but lowered guidance. It sees demand coming back very strong in second half. Semis are a big thing with the AI revolution. Opportunity to buy a fantastic company at a cheaper price. 12-month price target of $1070.
For new money, put half in each.
His buy points are constantly changing, much like the price targets. Sometimes he buys into strength, but it doesn't often happen.
For example, look at NVDA. He took profits, as it was bumping up against the price target. But after it reported, he realized that the price target was much lower and bought into that strength.
Drop the guest a line and he's happy to chat about how a particular stock's price targets may have changed.
