Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Stockchase Insights commented about whether SMCI-Q, HUT-T, VEEV-N, CLS-T, ZWK-T, H-T, XIC-T, SPLT-T are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT
Educational Segment.

Believes market entering into correction territory. Investors should look to old market "highs" to see previous support levels. 4800 price seems to be the previous level which the market was at. Trend lines also important for investors to study in order to determine where S&P 500 may find support. If US Fed decides not to cut interest rates, markets could fall below 4800. Would recommend buying around the 4500-4800 S&P 500 price level. If US Treasury decides to fund debt payments with debt instruments, bank stocks will sell off. A lot of market directions will depend on US Fed actions. Catastrophic fiscal position (large amounts of debt) a major concern. 

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Executive departures always cause investor stress, but they are not automatically bad. In VEEV's case, the company indicated the departure is amicable and it also reconfirmed guidance. Based on its prior solid history, we would have no reason to doubt its statement. While growth has been volatile, we certainly would consider it a high quality company, with a strong niche in its specific health/tech/sales area. 
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DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

HUTs valuation is close to its bitcoin holdings, and we feel this effectively means the market is either pricing in bitcoins price to decline or its operations to be worth near-zero. We think it looks interesting here as a value play. Overall, we would prefer GLXY due to its strong leadership, diverse operations, and history of success across crypto 'bull markets'.
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HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

We would have preferred a positive pre-announcement over 'nothing' of course, but the lack of announcement in and of itself does not mean anything concrete. It may be bad news, or may not be. SMCI has lots of new shareholders from its issue, and lots of investors with huge embedded profits. In a panic sell off it can still be easy to sell a stock up 564% in the past year. Fundamentally wise, it would be very hard for SMCI to see a massively negative shift in revenue and earnings momentum in three months. But sentiment of course can shift much more quickly and dramatically. The move was likely hugely overdone, looking at its prospects. But as noted sentiment is more important in the short term, and the market is in a risk-off mood right now. 
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COMMENT
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ETF Highlight

Hamilton Canadian Financials Yield Maximizer ETF (HMAX): HMAX is designed to provide high monthly income from Canada’s 10 largest financial services companies. The ETF uses an active covered call strategy to enhance monthly distribution income and reduce volatility. HMAX generates higher monthly income by writing at-the-money covered call options. Approximately 70% of the fund is weighted toward the ‘Big 5 banks’ (RBC, TD, CIBC, BNS, BMO). HMAX’s strategy seeks to benefit from income while also allowing for capital appreciation and protection against downside risk by only writing calls on 30-50% of holdings.
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COMMENT

We're just weeks away from Trans Mountain opening and bringing Canadian oil to the BC coast.  This is very important. The difference between WTI oil and other benchmarks has been shrinking and will continue to. There's a lot of free cash flow among Canadian energy stocks, which won't rely on oil prices rising to remain strong. Cash flows and share buybacks will increase in the future. A weak loonie helps Canadian companies, and many of these will hit their debt targets this year. Nat gas: a warm winter means high supplies, but nat gas shares have been climbing on the buildout of the LNG pipeline which will start operating in June/July. Expect volatile gas pricing during the shoulder season, but look at 2024-6 for better days ahead.

DON'T BUY

A young company that's bought several companies and have accumulated a lot of heavy oil production. In their favour are the shrinking differential with WCS oil and lot of drilling inventory, but not in their favour is liquidity is tight, because a single energy fund owns so many shares and likely won't sell. It boasts a decent 15% cash flow. Are better peers to buy though he's tempted by this.

COMMENT

They've been aggressive acquiring inventory, perhaps overpaying for a few, but that's now in the past, and they won't be buying more in the near future. They have more than enough drilling inventory, so now they must prove to markets the merits of what they bought and that they've taken care of all their overhangs. He projects 19% forward free cash flow yield--compelling. It's been a frustrating stock, though. Past laggards should perform well this year.

BUY

They were the first in this sector to reach zero debt, and they heavily bought back shares, which helped raise the share price an outperform.

BUY

Checks the boxes: quality management, strong balance sheet and have decent inventories.

BUY

Has taken profits, because the CEO changed (whom he's met), but really it was due to valuation, which has risen with the share price. He sees less, but still decent upside in this. Likes their long-dates reserves, good free cash flow yield and benefits from the WCS differential. Foreign investors will return to Canadian energy stocks when they realize that shale producers have inventory challenges (weak quality and quantity). He targets $42-43. They will be debt free in Q2, he expects.

PARTIAL SELL

There's great demand for heavy oil due to OPEC's cuts and Mexico will export less. A phenomenal company. Excellent managers who own a lot of shares. It trades near fair value, so actually sell some shares. This will become a source of funds.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/23, Up 11%)

He's been patient with this. It's his second-largest holding. A misunderstood stock with investors thinking their oil was lousy because they bought a garbage company drilling lousy holes. Now, BTE is drilling top-quality wells. Also, they had a tax issue with Ottawa that has since been solved. Ongoing noise. Is confident with the new CEO who's bought a lot of shares. Trades at 2.5x cash flow, a discounted valuation like no other. Are buying back shares. Caveat: their #2 shareholder will eventually sell. He targets $10.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/23, Up 57%)

They recently bought Enerplus and remains a pure play on North Dakota. His favourite US name, though prefers Canadian oil. A good $14 free cash flow yield, but there are better opportunities.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/23, Up 72%)

He sold all shares after making huge profits. He sees 10% upside. Would buy again if shares fell a lot or if the oil price jumped.