WATCH

Focuses on west coast office in San Fran, LA, Seattle, even Vancouver. Also invests in studios in Hollywood and NYC. San Fran has found it really hard to recover, as it needs leadership on safety, cleanliness, and almost rule of law. SF is a brain centre for the US, so HPP could be an interesting investment in terms of an office market recovery.

COMMENT
Finding the rate of return.

For the dividend yield, look to the company's own website or to sites like the TMX.

For actual earnings yield of REITs, you have to go through filings or analysts' research notes to understand what the net operating income is, and then divide it by the enterprise value.

BUY

Expensive earnings multiple because earnings are still coming off a trough, where occupancy is still recovering. The recovery is beginning in earnest, except where there's an oversupply as in Durham and Ottawa. Wide discount to NAV, debt, yet growing cashflow. If occupancy can improve over the next 6-18 months, investors will be rewarded. Quality portfolio.

HOLD

Stable distribution. Canadian REIT that invests in US grocery assets. Decent portfolio, even if it is in secondary markets (which may not be bad for grocery markets). Attractive valuation. Pretty steady earnings grower. 

HOLD

Not for growth, but own for stability of cashflow from its investment-grade tenant, Canadian Tire. One of the largest REITs in Canada. Discount to NAV. Stable, keep holding. Yield is around 6.5%.

WAIT

High volatility. Thinks highly of management. In office, buy and hold is not a good strategy. What is good is buy, fix, lease up, sell, recycle capital, develop. And SLG is good at that. Oversold. Hard to be positive on the sector. Be selective on entry point, volatility might help you out.

COMMENT
REITs in a portfolio.

Real estate always has a place in everyone's portfolio, some institutions have up to 20%. 18 different property sectors, which all behave differently. Should be an inflation-protected vehicle. Today, sectors you might want to look at include grocery-anchored shopping centres, single-family rentals, industrial warehouse, manufactured housing communities in US. 

BUY

Under pressure. Demand side is great in US, but high levels of new supply. 2023-24 might have more muted growth. Should have nice growing cashflow in latter half of next year. Discount to NAV. Comfortable owning it here.

TOP PICK

Europe and Canada, with major focus on Toronto and Montreal, which are seeing market rent growth of 40-50%. Strong internal cashflow growth, discount to NAV of $17-18. Quality. Yield is 5.40%.

(Analysts’ price target is $17.08)
TOP PICK

80% is US manufactured housing communities. Very recession-resilient sector, never a year of negative net operating income growth. High-quality cashflow attributes, so rarely trades at a discount as it is now. Yield is 3.06%.

(Analysts’ price target is $149.64)
TOP PICK

Alberta benefits from population growth, international migration, and inter-provincial migration. Not rent regulated. Quality housing. Large discount of about 20% to NAV. Outlook continues to be bright. Yield is 1.78%.

Good landlords. A very important characteristic. Could increase rents by 20%, but seldom goes above 9%. 

(Analysts’ price target is $74.82)
COMMENT
What to look for in an apartment REIT?

Look at supply/demand. The starting point has to be that demand is greater than supply and outpacing new construction. Ability to increase cashflow over time or to maintain/increase margins, especially during a period of elevated interest costs.

Provide quality housing at a fair market level. Unlikely to be a backlash from huge rents against apartment REITs. The solution is never rent controls, it's always supply.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

SYK has performed well this year, increasing as much as 24% year-to-date and as high as 48% (before the recent sell-off) on a one-year basis. Its valuation reached its historical high point of ~5.5X forward sales and ~28X forward earnings. Its fundamentals are strong and it continues to expand on most metrics, but we feel that its valuation became too stretched and we're beginning to see its price decline alongside the broader US healthcare market. We would be comfortable continuing to hold this name as part of a long-term healthcare position. 
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PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

CPH has a market cap of ~$109M and operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company. Sales have been fairly lumpy over the years, and have mostly declined, but it is free cash flow positive and repurchases some shares while mostly adding cash to its balance sheet. It has an expanding balance sheet, almost no debt, a good cash balance, and its valuation is decent at a 3.9X forward sales and 1.1X price to book multiple. It has seen a nice run-up so far this year - we would be comfortable with a small position, while being mindful of small-cap risks and position sizing. 
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

CCI operates as a cell tower company and is now trading at 13.4x times' EV/EBITDA (historical averages range from 13.4x to 26x in the last five years). In the last few years CCI’s growth in dividend payment has been quite consistent supported by growth in underlying cash flow. Growth was mainly through organic growth (price increase mostly) and the acquisition of other cell towers. Similar to other real estate names, the balance sheet is leveraged, with net debt of around $28.2B and net debt/EBITDA is 5.6x. CCI is a high-quality cell tower company that has consistently raised dividends. High interest rates are a near-term headwind for real estate companies in general (higher interest expense, lower trading multiple due to other attractive alternatives). Given that CCI is trading at its lowest valuation in years, we would be comfortable adding CCI here, though the stock may not start to perform until the current worry over interest rates abates somewhat. 
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