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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

ACQ, who holds 65 auto locations and has over 15,000 vehicles in inventory, is reiterated as a TOP PICK.  Recently reported earnings showed a 30% increase in EPS.  Cash reserves are being prudently used to aggressively retire debt.  It trades at 7x earnings, 1.2x book and supports a 21% ROE.  We continue to recommend a stop at $21, looking to achieve $31 -- upside potential of 24%.  Yield 0%   

(Analysts’ price target is $31.50)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate ATD, operator of over 14,000 convenience stores in 25 countries, as a TOP PICK.   It supports a ROE of 24% and trades at 18x earnings.  Quarterly cash reserves are growing, while stock is bought back and debt is retired.  We recommend trailing up the stop (from $63) to $67, looking to achieve $82 -- upside potential of 16%.  Yield 0.5% 

(Analysts’ price target is $82.00)
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate this US retirement and insurance provider, with over $370 billion in assets under management, as a TOP PICK.  It trades at 5x earnings, 1.2x book and supports a ROE of 21%.  Deposits and premiums grew over 40% over the year to almost $10 billion.  Cash reserves are growing, while to company is aggressively retiring debt.  It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 25% of cash flow.  We recommend trailing up the stop (from $16.50) to $17.50, looking to achieve $25.00 -- upside potential over 30%.  Yield 4.8%   

(Analysts’ price target is $25.08)
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 23/22, Up 54.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with WOR has triggered its stop at $68.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  When combined with the previous recommendations, this will result in a net investment gain of 39%.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 18/23, Up 8.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with EQT has triggered its stop at $40.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  When combined with the previous recommendations, this will result in a net investment gain of 14%.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 11/23, Up 16%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with CPG is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we now recommend trailing up the stop (from $8.00) to $9.50 at this time.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/23, Up 14.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with CVE is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we now recommend trailing up the stop (from $20) to $24 at this time. 

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 04/23, Up 12.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with MU is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we now recommend trailing up the stop (from $52) to $61 at this time. 

COMMENT
Clouds over the economy?

We know the economy's slowing. In Canada, Q2 GDP was down 0.2%. The US came in much better at 2.1%. The consumer's held up relatively well, especially the US consumer. They were drawing on savings that were built up during the pandemic. Most of those savings are gone now. The savings rate is actually back down below, yet credit card debt is higher than, pre-pandemic levels. Also, lines of credit are going back up. Delinquencies have been slowly going up, though not yet at the level that spells trouble.

What all this tells her is that going forward, household spending will rely much more on employment and interest rates. From yesterday, Fed Chair Powell implied that rates will stay higher for longer, and the market's reacting to that.

But the positive side is Powell suggesting that a soft landing is still possible, given that the economy's holding up much better.

COMMENT
Rates higher for longer?

Eventually the economy will slow to the point where central banks have to start cutting. Consensus expectations are that that point will be well into next year. In Canada, the ratio of debt to disposable income is much higher than it is in the States, so our economy is much more sensitive to higher interest rates. 

Canada has variable rate mortgages, but they aren't really sold in the US where fixed rate is the norm. As rates stay higher for longer, and those mortgages need to reset, that's going to impact households. Unfortunately, CPI in Canada is trending the wrong way, so the BOC has a dilemma as to what to do on the next rate decision.

DON'T BUY

Covid vaccine was its first commercial product, and it did well. That's trailing off. Investing in drug pipeline, and it's hard to determine when products might be approved and launched. Her preference is a more established company with a pipeline.

SELL

Plagued with cost overruns on fixed-price contracts. She's not tempted. Sell, take the loss, and move elsewhere in the engineering space. She owns WSP, purely engineering design and services, no construction exposure.

BUY

Purely engineering design and services, without construction exposure. Good track record of acquiring and integrating. Well positioned in vertical markets that she likes. Likes the engineering space, especially with the US Inflation Reduction Act. 

WATCH
PFE vs. MRK

Benefitted from Covid vaccines. Patent expirations in a couple of years. How will they continue to grow? Company is confident in acquisitions and internal R&D. She's looking at it, no decision yet. Cheap multiple, attractive yield. More of a deep value play.

MRK's done relatively better. Drugs going off patent also, but pipeline is a bit better. She's looking at this one too, still assessing.

WATCH
PFE vs. MRK

Benefitted from Covid vaccines. Patent expirations in a couple of years. How will they continue to grow? Company is confident in acquisitions and internal R&D. She's looking at it, no decision yet. Cheap multiple, attractive yield. More of a deep value play.

MRK's done relatively better. Drugs going off patent also, but pipeline is a bit better. She's looking at this one too, still assessing.