PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 21/22, Up 19%)

Largest wealth manager in the US, having scaled back from investment banking and trading. Lots of free cashflow, in great financial shape, steady dividend increases, hefty dividend. Core holding. More stable and conservative than JPM, which he also owns. Yield is 4%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 21/22, Up 33%)

Continually outperforms the rest of the world. Cash hoard of $150B, so they can jump first on any opportunities. Transition to a younger management team is being really well executed. Unique business.

WATCH

Pulled back on earnings and consumer sentiment. Time to look at it, and he is. Hasn't stepped in yet as he completes his research. Meets his quality criteria. Phenomenal franchise in Canada. Nothing wrong with the business, it's just economically sensitive. Well run, fantastic financial shape.

DON'T BUY

In general, the high-yield bond market is yielding at least 300-400 bps above investment-grade bonds. This one should have that yield advantage, and if it doesn't, there's an issue. Yield is 5.8%, and the high-yield bond market is yielding over 8%. He's going to take a look at this ETF after the show.

WAIT

Consistent dividend payer over time. If he were to invest in oil/gas, this would be at the top of the list. You want to step in when oil prices are weak, and that's not now.

WAIT

Needs to see a pullback. Economically sensitive. If the US consumer slows down, and there are signs of this, he may get an entry opportunity. 

DON'T BUY

So many switched from cash to online payments during Covid. Solid free cashflow, but too much competition directly in the space now. He prefers Visa in that world, as it clips money no matter which product is used.

WEAK BUY

Big dividend payer and big free cashflow. Declining used of tobacco in the developed world, less so elsewhere. Hard to get excited about it, but he acknowledges the big dividend if you want it. Yield is almost 9%.

BUY

P&C insurance is doing very well, though this year is tougher than most because of catastrophic losses. So they raise their prices. One of the lower combined ratios in the space. Benefits from higher interest rates. Outlook is for double-digit returns over the next several years.

STRONG BUY

Compelling buy at these levels. Unique properties. ESPN remains a free cashflow generator. Parks are booming, hurt a bit by writers' strike. NAV is double current share price. Battling political issues in Florida. Gaining market share in streaming, and CEO is focused on making it profitable.

DON'T BUY

Still a work in progress. Cleaning it up, spinning off some divisions. In mediocre businesses that they can't get out of. Avoid. Better companies elsewhere.

BUY

The most retail-focused of the Canadian banks, and they do it very well. Very steady business, great credit controls. Solid dividend, good growth. Core holding.

Fears of recession are real, but won't be hurt too badly in mortgage market. Not expecting a big increase in non-performing loans. Loan books are in great shape, as regulations result in bigger risks shifting to non-bank lenders.

TOP PICK

Increase in catastrophic losses means most insurers are suffering this year. For P&C insurers, bad news is good news, as they just raise prices. Great capital allocators. Raise dividends. Favour profits over market share, so divesting unprofitable businesses. Spectacularly well run. Free cashflow machine. Yield is 3.28%.

(Analysts’ price target is $125.32)
TOP PICK

Best-run, widest healthcare business in the US. In so many areas. Free cashflow generator. Debt is manageable, and it's being reduced. 8x earnings. Foot traffic and consumer spending are down. Competitive pressures, but he expects them to gain more business than they're losing (as from Blue Shield). Yield is 3.68%.

(Analysts’ price target is $92.26)
TOP PICK

Pure retail bank in the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium. In a mess after the financial crisis. Over-capitalized, extremely well run, boring, profitable. Buying back shares. Best-run European bank. Yield is 5.5%.

(Analysts’ price target is $18.33)