Violent pace of interest rate increases. Doesn't think we've ever seen anything like this. Compounding that has been the previous guidance, which suggested rate hikes would be mild but have been absolutely very aggressive. It's been a shock to the markets and to investors.
Higher rates and debt. We hear that interest rate hikes are really painful for the consumer. Important not to forget that it's painful for everyone including governments, corporations, and households. US national debt is over 31T, a massive number. Higher rates are so punitive for all parts of society, but it's a short- to medium-term measure designed to tamp down the flames of inflation.
Signs of inflation levelling off? Yes. Challenging part is that the data is month over month. There was a point where inflation really jumped. Yesterday's headline CPI of 7% has come down from 9%. If hikes hold, and the price levels remain stable, you're likely to see monthly headline inflation continue to roll down to 3-4% in the back half of next year. As a consumer you don't really see it, as the prices for everything have jumped significantly. The Fed is trying to halt the price increases so that inflation naturally levels off. That looks to be the case.
Fed hiking approach. The expectation for today is around 50 bps. But he expects the language to be very aggressive. Forward guidance, vigilance, and an aggressive tone are also part of the tools in the toolbox.
Performed exceptionally well. Largest player in NA. Great recurring revenue, high profit margins, very strong free cashflow. Be wary of the valuation, north of 30x earnings. Watch, you'll get your chance of a pullback in this volatile market.
A polarizing stock. Stay away. Leaves a lot to be desired on operating fundamentals, cashflow, and operating margins. Story is strong, but fundamentals are weak.
Good job transitioning since financial crisis to be less cyclical. Strong wealth management platform, traditional capital markets business. Will get hit by economic slowdown. 13x earnings. His preference is in alternative asset management, such as KKR or BAM, as they're in better position to capitalize on market volatility.
BAM vs. BN Really likes Brookfield. His preference is to own the parent company, as it has a unique ability more than the individual silos to allocate capital across the platform. He would continue to hold the asset management spinoff, but may not add.
BN vs. BAM Really likes Brookfield. His preference is to own the parent company, as it has a more unique ability than the individual silos to allocate capital across the platform. He would continue to hold the asset management spinoff, but may not add.
Lots of regulatory pressure, which is good because they have to focus on their core business. Core business and valuation have continued to improve. Retail focused, very defensive. But his preference now in this environment is the Canadian banks.
Banks - US vs. Canadian. His preference now is the Canadian banks. They have better platforms for growth because they can grow into international markets. Valuations are comparable, but Canadian banks pay out more in dividends. Plus, better tax treatment outside an RRSP for the Canadian investor. Look to the US for things you can't get in Canada, and he prefers alternative asset managers over banks for that.
Tough year for the entire space. A lot has to do with fixed-price contracts. Rampant inflation hits profitability. Better opportunities out there. Very well run.
Dominant player, very well run, phenomenal assets. Good one if you want exposure to the space. Negative reaction to Westinghouse deal, but it gives them another pillar and a stable service side to their business, an operational benefit. Always worried about secondary supply of uranium that keeps a lid on prices. A green energy option. Wait for pullback, prices are very volatile.
Steer clear. Product is great, business leaves a lot to be desired. Sells equipment plus a service offering. Revenues have taken a hit. No operating income, earnings, or cashflow. Burning cash at an aggressive rate. Debt's a problem. Don't bank on a takeover.