It's breathtaking how yields slid this week. (The U.S. 10-year fell below 3% today.) If you go back to November 2018 to the highs of June 2022, the 50% retracement for yields is 2%. Those two dates were a double top for yields. He expects a respite for yields as commodity prices (gas and wheat) come in. This may convince Jay Powell to take his foot off the gas and result in yields come in from here.
He's been negative on all semis lately, but only Micron is below the February 2020 level. For Nvidia to return below Feb. 2020, shares would have to be cut in half--a pretty big move. TSM and Nvidia make up 20% of SMH. The former would need to plunge 30% to fall below Feb. 2020. So, there's a lot of room to the downside. We'll have to dip down a lot to call a bottom in semis.
Semis have been slumping not just this week but for a while. They've been awful for a while. The Micron forecast is an example of a lot of nervousness in semis; there's been put-buying across the board within the SMH and going far, as far as September and October.
Shares plunged today after the CEO warned (in an internal memo) of hiring cutbacks because he expects one of the worst economic downturns in return history. The statement was abrasive. Meta still wants to spend money, but how in the current circumstance as they continue to build the metaverse?
Look at its underperformance, down almost 5% today as stocks were up. Semis have been underperforming the S&P for the last 20 days by roughly 13%. It's in stark contrast to the bond rally. An ugly day. It may be okay for interest-rate sensitive tech stocks to rally today, like tech, but the move in semis is downright scary, which this reflects the epicentre of the economy.
Shares plunged today after the CEO warned (in an internal memo) of hiring cutbacks because he expects one of the worst economic downturns in return history. Tightening is not bad for a company; nothing like a crisis to make a company more efficient. The tech world felt that growth would last forever, but now there is definitely a reassessment. Job-cutting would make Jay Powell's job easier.
Down over 9% this week, even with today's cannabis comeback He has been long in cannabis. It's been a tough week. Most of this ETF is invested in Canadian stocks. Canopy this week just announced it would issue more shares, which will highly dilute shares. Canopy has been eroding capital quickly. A lot of consolidation needs to happen. The top 3-4 Canadian players are losing market share. Look to U.S. names, instead, where valuations are interesting. Names like Curaleaf are trading at low May 2020 valuations.
MJ-N down this week He has been long in cannabis. It's been a tough week. Most of this ETF is invested in Canadian stocks. Canopy this week just announced it would issue more shares, which will highly dilute shares. Canopy has been eroding capital quickly. A lot of consolidation needs to happen. The top 3-4 Canadian players are losing market share. Look to U.S. names, instead, where valuations are interesting. Names like Curaleaf are trading at low May 2020 valuations.