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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 06/18, Up 14%) Loves it. They did an investor day in September to outline their future; in the next 10 years, they said that can earn a total of US$40 billion in free cash flow (post-dividends and investments). This is their current market cap. Wow. They plan to double their net-asset value by managing more money and charging higher rents on their properties. Great CEO.
management
diversified
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 06/18, Up 2%) Boasts 35 quarters in a row of 20% revenue growth. Online ads will continue to grow, and Google dominates search engines. The Cloud will continue to grow. They invest in hardware, software and healthcare. Perfect balance sheet. Has 20x earnings. One of the greatest companies on Earth.
Technology
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 06/18, Down 21%) They had stellar numbers in 2018 like 11% revenue growth and bought back 2% of its stock.. But they're by this Malaysian scandal, sued by their government by a huge amount and create a crisis of confidence--buy this will pass. GS recovered a bit in Q4. But he doesn't understand why this is trading at tangible book value. A wonderful franchise.
investment companies
funds
BUY
ENB vs. Transcanada Apart from one hiccup (it cut its dividend once in the 90s), Transcanada has performed very well. It's a low-risk business with 95% of its revenues regulated or on long-term contracts. They plan to spend $28 billion on new growth projects and fund it with existing cash flow. They can also grow their dividend 8-10% annually for the next three years. As growth projects come to play, maybe their earning will ramp up again.
oil
gas pipelines
DON'T BUY
It was a high-flying stock until they ran into management and competition problems. He never got excited by NFI, failing to find their moat and feeling that their balance sheet wasn't that great. That said, he's never done a deep dive into NFI. Not on his radar. He'd need to see serious earnings growth first.
Automotive
COMMENT
Before their last earnings report, STZ was one of the top S&P names. It's not a barn-burning growth company. He prefers a spirits company, like in Europe. He can't predict what STZ will do in cannabis, which is a big investment for them. If you want to buy weed, buy weed; want to buy alcohol, buy alcohol stocks. He'll do more research into this. Can't say whether to buy or sell this.
breweries
beverages
BUY
5-10-year projection He's nervous like many others about the Amazon threat, but don't wait for the Amazon storm clouds to pass. Put capital to work on a good company long term and ignore the daily volatility. FedEx lowered volatility recently and got hammered--and that was the time to buy. Headlines about Amazon taking over shipping are unfounded, he feels; it won't happen. FedEx is trading at a reasonable valuation. He has no problem owning FedEx now.
Transportation
COMMENT
Trading at 15x earnings after a pullback. It's a complicated company with so many products and now has this talcum powder issue. You won't go too wrong owning this, but will this be a compounder? He doesn't know. It's probably undervalued because of the talcum-cancer scare; markets *always* overreact to bad news. Always.
biotechnology
pharmaceutical
STRONG BUY
A past top pick. Any family with kids with subscribe to Disney's forthcoming streaming service; it'll be a home run. Their comic book movies are endless and a huge success. Their amusement parks are the world's greatest businesses. Trading at 16x earnings. Buy and hold it forever.
entertainment services
TOP PICK
Since 2013, they've been raising the dividend. They keep buying back shares. They own their own hub and generate a ton of free cash flow. Delta plans to keep buyin shares. For some reason, the market isn't convinced about Delta. They spend wisely. Huge demand for travel will continue around the world. Oil prices have fallen. He expects 10x earnings. He's excited about this. (Analysts’ price target is $63.67)
Transportation
TOP PICK
Well-run though cyclical. MG says that if car sales remain flat for the next three years, MG will generate of 35% of current market cap in free cash flow (after paying dividends). They will continue to buy back stock. They've doubled the dividend. Cheap valuation. (Analysts’ price target is $78.30)
Automotive
